Three thoughts to start the 2025 Rapids season
Notes, and thoughts, and my prediction for the finishing order in the Western Conference.
It’s season’s eve! (sort of). The Concacaf Champions Cup is on tonight between Colorado and LAFC, and once again, the Rapids will compete in a wintery frozen hellscape of misery for midfielders, photographers, and beer vendors alike.1 Colorado takes it on the road this weekend to play St Louis in their MLS League opener.
We’ve thought deeply about what the team needed in the offseason, and now we’ve seen Rapids President Pádraig Smith and Sporting Director Fran Taylor do what they thought was right to address those needs. I’ve also keenly observed what the rest of the Western Conference has been doing. And I’m ready to share where my head is at.
Thought 1:
We have all the central-ish midfielders. Now what?
In the offseason, Colorado brought in
a center back
a center back
a central midfielder
a central midfielder
a central midfielder
a central midfielder2
Considering most fans thought the team needed a second striker and two wide midfield/attacking players, this comes as a surprise.
It is possible the Rapids have decided to play a 3-4-2-1 in which there are two deeper central midfielder and two attacking midfielder. The preseason lineups haven’t shown evidence of three centerbacks, but maybe the team has been waiting.
It’s also possible that this stacking of central midfielders is part of the team’s overall moneyball approach to roster construction: attacking wide players are expensive, and so are strikers. Other team’s surplus central midfielders – DC United were clearly ready to move on from Ku DiPietro; Josh Atencio, is a great player that was unlikely to break through with regular minutes in Seattle – could be had at bargain prices. So rather than break the bank to get players at the positions you need, get players you like at the right price from whatever positions they come up, and then make ‘em fit into a system.
I don’t hate the idea. I’m also really not sure if’ll work.
I will say that I think Ollie Larraz and Conor Ronan might both see a big reduction in minutes - or will have to completely ball out in order to hold on to starting jobs.
Thought 2:
I think this team is going to be slow. That worries me.
Reggie Cannon was really fast three years ago; now he’s just regular MLS fast. Sam Vines was a marauding terror four years ago; less so now.
Cole Bassett has pace but he’s not fast. In what I’ve seen of Ku DiPietro, he’s ‘up tempo’, but he’s not gonna win foot races against the best in MLS. No idea about Atencio. His advanced metrics are exciting, but he had around 1,000 minutes in 2024 and 900 in 2023 for Seattle Sounders, and I don’t think I saw any of him.
Outside of Kevin Cabral, this team doesn’t have anyone with raw speed. No Jonathan Lewis, no Moïse Bombito. Speed is a killer and you can’t coach it. Where have you gone, Marvell Wynne/ our nation turns its lonely eyes to you, woo woo woo.
My guess is the team is going to embrace the reality that they can’t ‘run at you’ and succeed. The team will try for high press, opposing half turnovers; they will try and work for central midfield turnovers and then quick pass transition attacks; they will work it upfield with controlled possession. They’ve acquired lots of guys with good ball movement or possession abilities, but not necessarily the ‘get past you, get in behind you’ guys.
They’ll still play wide, but rather than a formal ‘boots on the chalk’ wide midfielder who tears past opponents, they’re going to move down the sides with triangular passing, and big switch diagonals, and methodical breakdowns of opponents.
And they still have Cabral and Navarro as a threat when they want someone who’ll put the gas pedal on the floor.
That said, soccer teams like to have multiple dimensions and looks for their attacks. Mostly, the Rapids have put emphasis into one dimension (possession) while reducing another (speed), and I’m concerned other teams will be able to adjust easily. You want more weapons, not fewer.
Thought 3
Here’s my Western Conference Predictions.
We made changes, but it’s unclear if we improved. A lot of team I preview improved in the offseason, including Minnesota with CB Nicolás Romero and MF Ho-yeon Jung, Austin with F Myrto Uzuni and F Brandon Vazquez, San Jose with F Chicho Arango and M Mark-Anthony Kaye, and Sporting Kansas City with F Dejan Joveljic and M Manu Garcia. Other teams, like Seattle, LAFC, and LA Galaxy, didn’t make big upgrades but are better than Colorado.
LAFC - Bouanga? Lloris? Giroud? Ebobisse? Extra tasty.
Seattle - The core group of Morris, Roldan, Frei and Rusnak is pretty fantastic.
LA Galaxy - Pec and Paintsil are a sight to see. Without Puig, I can see them falling as low as 5th, though.
RSL - The whole question is: how essential was Chicho Arango to this team? I think his production can be duplicated by others. Maybe I’m wrong.
Minnesota - Full season of Kelvin Yeboah and Joaquin Pereyra should have the Loons looking sharp in 2025.
Houston - This is Jack McGlynn’s team. He’s either ready for prime time or deceptively league average.
Colorado - Seventh is my glowing, ‘season’s about to start’ optimism and excitement shining through my rational skepticism.
Austin - Hot garbage in 2024. Should be better this year, but not ‘win MLS Cup’ better.
Portland - It’s possible that Evander and 20-year-old recent addition Kevin Kelsy form a killer duo and lay waste to the Western Conference. Also possible that Kelsy’s a bust, or that this is a ‘score 3 goals, concede 4 goals’ kind of team.
Vancouver - They didn’t do much in the offseason; maybe less than almost any other team in the league. Seems logical that they’d fall, not rise, from last year’s 8th place finish.
San Jose - Chicho Arango and Mark-Anthony Kaye might drag this awful team into ‘merely mediocre’ territory. But they don’t make SJ a playoff team.
FC Dallas - This team had done a full teardown and then, after I previewed them, they brought in Lucho Acosta. Still, there isn’t much of a supporting cast for him.
St Louis City - Finished 12th last year, and did nothing in the offseason? My only regret on this prediction is that I like Edward Lowen enough that I can’t bring myself to put them last. I think I might regret that.
San Diego - Perfunctory ‘sell a lot tickets’ ‘shoot off lots of fireworks when they finally win a first game’ ‘MLS old heads will constantly forget there’s 30 teams now’ season.
Sporting Kansas City - The only question here is will SKC ever fire Peter Vermes?
My prediction for tonight, as I said on the podcast last week, is a 2-0 win to Colorado; I think they do that and then grind out a 1-1 result in LA to get to the second CCC round.
I’ll reserve a playoff prediction for when (and if) the Rapids make the playoffs.
In 2018, nearly seven years ago to the day, the Pids played in what was the coldest match ever contended by MLS teams. The beer taps, famously, froze.
Chidozie Awaziem, Ian Murphy, Sam Bassett, Ted Ku DiPietro, Ali Fadal, Josh Atencio.