Western Conference Preview: Part 2
Teams that start with the letters 'R' through 'V' in the Western Conference. Fourteen teams reviewed means: the 2025 season must be close!
Part II of our preview of the teams Colorado has to beat to top the table this season. (For part one, click here.)
By the way, I absolutely savaged some of the teams down below. Maybe I was in a bad mood. I dunno. You be the judge. I do think, for those Rapids fans who spent the offseason complaining/worrying the team didn’t make enough moves, part II of my preview of Western Conference demonstrates that some teams did seemingly nothing at all. It could be A LOT worse.
Real Salt Lake
Finish in 2024: 3rd place, 59 points, 16-11-7 (WTL), Eliminated in Playoffs first round
Goals For in 2024: 65
Goals Against in 2024: 48
Key Additions: CF Elias Manoel, ST Ariath Piol, GK Mason Stajduhar, GK Rafael Cabrál
Key Subtractions: ST Cristian ‘Chicho’ Arango, RW Anderson Julio, MF Matt Crooks
Got better? Or got worse?: Worse ⬇️
Head coach Pablo Mastroeni seemed to have everything going for him: an electric young attacking mid in Diego Luna; one of the leagues best strikers in Chicho Arango; a reliable multifaceted centerback in Justin Glad; and a bunch of effective supporting players in Anderson Julio, Emeka Eneli, Matt Crooks, and Brayan Vera.
But San Jose’s new gaffer Bruce Arena I guess had his eye on Arango, and made RSL an offer they couldn’t refuse of $1.4 million in GAM; and Julio was swapped to Houston for fullback Sam Junqua and $500K; and Matt Crooks left for Hull City. Those three players accounted for 29 goals and 12 assists in 2024. Wow.
So now RSL are doing a bit of rebuilding, especially at striker and goalkeeper. They brought in NYRB striker Elias Manoel, who had 8 goals in 2024. Ariath Piol comes from the Australian A-League. Will they fill the gap?
Despite the team’s success in 2024, the numbers indicate that one position that wasn’t helpful to the cause was goalkeeper. RSL’s man in goal, former Colorado Rapid GK Zac MacMath, didn’t put up great numbers in 2024 for the cobalt and claret; his -1.5 xG +/- was 51st out of 65 keepers in the league. 1 RSL Sporting Director Kurt Schmid brought in GK Mason Stajduhar from Orlando; the 26 year-old had 8 starts and put up a +2.0 xG +/-. He also added keeper Rafael Cabral from Cruziero in the Brazilian League. MacMath is still on the roster, but I hope he knows a good real estate agent.
There’s more work to do here, but RSL are enough to compete this year without many more upgrades. This might be another year where Colorado and RSL and duking it out all year for the back end of the playoff spots in the WC.
San Diego FC
Finish in 2024/Goals For in 2024/Goals Against in 2024: First year in the league.
Key Additions: FWD Chucky Lozano, DM Anibal Godoy, RW Anders Dreyer
Got better? Or got worse?: This is kind of a deep existential philosophical question. Can something that didn’t exist before be *better*? Or does it just … begin its existence?
…
These are the teams that have entered the league in the past decade: NY and Orlando; Atlanta and Minnesota; Los Angeles and Cincinnati; Miami and Nashville; Austin, Charlotte, and St. Louis. Which of the above inaugural seasons will San Diego’s first year most resemble?
A couple of those teams decided year one was going to be led with STAR POWER. NY brought in David Villa; LA had Carlos Vela; Orlando had Kaká. Minnesota and Miami were kind of like ‘hey we found some players. Let’s give it a go.’ Charlotte and St Louis spent on some good players that weren’t quite marquee names. Atlanta (and LA) spent big enough to compete their very first year; they did it at a lot of positions (and with a lot of money).
With Mexican International Hirving ‘Chucky’ Lozano leading San Diego, San Diego have the big name to sell out the stadium. They have some supporting pieces too: your requisite MLS-league veterans in Anibal Godoy, Emmanuel Boateng, Andres Reyes, Pablo Sisniega; plus some decent quality European transfers in Marcus Ingvartsen, Alex Mighten, and Paddy McNair. Those supporting players imply SD seem to want to put together a respectable season, although after the first five or six players, there are a lot of names on this roster that I’m just not familiar with. Seems the consensus of MLS pundits is an SD team that will finish somewhere between 14th and 10th. A decent first year, building towards a future.
St. Louis’ first place finish in the Western Conference in 2023. proved that a first year team can be a winner in MLS. On the other hand, FC Cincinnati’s wooden spoon performance in 2019 demonstrated that putting together your first MLS team can sometimes be perilous.
San Jose Earthquakes
Finish in 2024: 14th in Western Conference, 21 points, 6-3-25 WTL; did not qualify for playoffs
Goals For in 2024: 41
Goals Against in 2024: 78
Key Additions: FWD Cristian ‘Chicho’ Arango, MF Mark-Anthony Kaye, D Dave Romney, CF Josef Martinez, FB Nick Lima
Key Subtractions: ST Jeremy Ebobisse, MF Jackson Yueill, GK JT Marcinkowski, GK William Yarbrough, DM Carlos Gruezo
Got better? Or got worse?: ⬆️ Better
I’m not sure how it slipped under the collective radar of MLS fans - maybe we were too excited as Rapids followers about Colorado making the playoffs once again - but the 2024 San Jose Earthquakes set an MLS record for Goals Conceded, with 78. Head Coach Luchi Gonzalez was fired on June 28 after a 3-2-14 ‘start’ to the season; Interim Ian Russell won 3 more matches and lost 11 to close out a disaster of a year for the Quakes.
For 2025, San Jose turns to former USMNT head coach and five-time MLS Cup winner Bruce Arena. Arena had been unemployed for the entire 2024 due to a mostly undisclosed suspension by MLS from the New England Revolution for "insensitive and inappropriate remarks." It was one of the stranger episodes in MLS history that it was never fully explained what happened, and that various players and coaches lined up to defend or condemn him. Arena was a similarly divisive person for USMNT fans when he assumed responsibility for the team after the firing of Jurgen Klinsmann in mid-2016. Arena took the USMNT to a 3-2-2 record; but that second loss on October 10, 2017 in Couva, Trinidad & Tobago knocked the team out of the 2018 World Cup entirely. It is generally remembered as the single biggest disaster in US soccer history.
So what do I think about the 2025 Quakes trying to bounce back from the worst year in their history with Bruce Arena, a manager with a reputation for being curmudgeonly, stubborn, and obstinant? I think it’s probably a bad move. It is entirely possible that Arena will win some games and bring back some hope to this franchise. But a 73 year-old man with a spotty reputation for interpersonal communications seems like a strange choice for a team embarking on a rebuild. The Quakes are two-time MLS Cup Champs; they won Supporters Shield as recently as 2012.2 But they also haven’t finished as high as sixth in their conference since 2017. They built a new stadium in 2015, but they’ve NEVER hosted a playoff game there.3
OK you get it; also this is turning into catastrophe porn. I feel terrible for Quakes fans; I visited Paypal Park last year and found the atmosphere enjoyable. This team has had Landon Donovan and Steven Lenhart and Alan Gordon (The Bash Brothers!) and source of soccering joy Tommy Thompson. Quakes fans deserve better.
Arena brought in four players (so far) from his old New England team. He also added RSL problem-child Chicho Arango , who is coming off of a 17 goal, 6 assist season. But I’m really not sure San Jose made the right upgrades on defense, in defensive midfield, or at goalkeeper to fix this team.4 San Jose jettisoned 4 keepers in the offseason and retained just their Brazilian netminder, Daniel. He carried a -2.8 xG +/- in 2024 in 12 games, which was 51st in MLS out of 65 GKs. Sure, the defense in front of him contributed to that, but I think San Jose didn’t fix what was really broken here. So yeah, the offense will be fun, with midfield wizard Christian Espinoza and Chicho Arango lighting up the scoreboard and with youngsters Benji Kikanovic and Nico Tsakiris perhaps developing a little this year to contribute. But the defense could be turrible – like, WORSE than 2024. Overall, San Jose still isn’t there. They might not even be close to ‘there.’
Seattle Sounders
Finish in 2024: 4th, 51 points, 15-6-13 WTL, Lost in W. Conference Finals to LAG
Goals For in 2024: 51
Goals Against in 2024: 35 (Fewest conceded in MLS in 2024)
Key Additions: FWD Jesus Ferreira, D Kim Kee-Hee
Key Subtractions: AM Raul Ruidiaz, M Leo Chu
Got better? Or got worse?: ⬆️ Better
Did you know the Seattle Sounders have only missed the playoffs once in their MLS history: in 2022? And that year … they won Concacaf Champions League?
That’s a simple way to say that Seattle is always good; maddeningly so for many of us. 2025 should be no different. They won’t have Raul Ruidiaz anymore, which is a bummer since he’s been an electric piece of their attack since 2018. But all things must come to an end, and Ruidiaz, at 34 years old and with fewer than 2,000 minutes each of the past three seasons, is past his best days.
Seattle still has the core of players that have granted them success for the past five years: Stefan Frei, Christian Roldan, Jordan Morris, and Nouhou Tolo. Albert Rusnak, formerly with RSL, had his best year in MLS ever last year for Seattle, churning out 10 goals and 12 assists.
Seems like Seattle are going to wait till the summer transfer window for a big move. That’s smart; they tend to kind of hover midtable till July and then make their push. It almost seems like cheating. The lineup as-is looks good enough to make the playoffs.
It does, however, feel like in recent years Seattle has slipped from being MLS royalty - when they were 1-2 every year with LAFC or LAG - and now they’re kind of unremarkable. Don’t get me wrong: they’re successful to a degree that Rapids fans should envy them. But the lineup as assembled doesn’t scream ‘MLS Cup Contender’ like it used to, year after year.
Sporting Kansas City
Finish in 2024: 13th place, 31 points, 8-7-19, USOC Runners-up, missed playoffs
Goals For in 2024: 51
Goals Against in 2024: 66
Key Additions: ST Dejan Joveljic, M Manu Garcia, RW Shapi Sulemanov, Mason Toye
Key Subtractions: GK Tim Melia, D Remi Walter, FWD Johnny Russell, FWD Alan Pulido
Got better? Or got worse?: ⬆️ Better? But not a lot? The attack looks good. The rest though?
Sporting KC made a run all the way to the US Open Cup Final in 2024. Other than that, everything else was a mess. Designated Player Alan Pulido played over 1900 minutes but produced just 7 goals and 4 assists; his xG+xA vs other forwards was in the 18th percentile. Yikes, thats bad. Tim Melia was ok-not-great between the pipes. Johnny Russell turned in his lowest Goals+Assists mark since coming to MLS in 2018. In all of the Western Conference, only San Jose conceded more goals.
Well, Pulido is gone, and Russell is gone, and Melia is gone. Instead of a possession-crazy dribbler at forward, they now have former LA Galaxy man Dejan Joveljic at center forward: he’s a six-yard-box smasher, either with his feet or his head, so it’s critical he gets service. To that end SKC brought in Sulemanov and Garcia from Aris Thessaloniki in the Greek Superleague. Garcia is on a DP contract, Sulemanov (I think) is on TAM. Does that, plus the holdovers from 2024 like Eric Thommy, Daniel Salloi, and Willie Agada, add up to a better 2025 for Peter Vermes and his men? Is 22 year-old John Pulskamp ready to be the senior netminder? I don’t think this is enough. Manu Garcia would have to be an all-star caliber player, and some of the supporting cast that have never wowed, like Khiry Shelton, Thommy, and Nemanja Radoja, would have to wow. Mostly I think this team has splashy attacking pieces but huge questions in midfield and fullback. Did I mention SKC had the second-worst defense in the West in 2024? Did you notice that none of those key additions up above is a defender?5
SKC needed an overhaul. Instead, they got some tinkering. I think the result might be another year out of the playoffs in 2025.
St Louis City SC
Finish in 2024: 12th, 37 points, 8-13-13 WTL, Missed playoffs
Goals For in 2024: 50
Goals Against in 2024: 63
Key Additions: D Timo Baumgartl, MF Conrad Wallem
Key Subtractions: D Jake Nerwinski
Got better? Or got worse?: ⬆️ Same or worse.
The 2023 St Louis FC team were a study in statistical outliers and improbability. According to the math, FBRef calculated St Louis’ Expected Goal Differential (xGD) that year at -7.5, and American Soccer Analysis had it at -2.58. In reality, somehow, they put up a +17 Goal Differential. Low probability goals went in. High probability chances from opponents stayed out. Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria! St. Louis’ Expected Points (based mostly on xGD) was 44.73, which would have put them 9th in the Western Conference that year. Instead, they finished first on 56 points. St. Louis were incredibly, unbelievably, irrationally lucky, and anyone with a brain would have told you that this was unsustainable.
Whelp, regression to the mean is a bitch.
St. Louis’ xGD according to FBRef in 2024 was -10.5, and their <actual> Goal Differential was in line with the math at -13. That translated to a putrid 37 points and 12th place.
There were players I was really excited about: Aziel Jackson, Akil Watts, Samuel Adeniran, Anthony Markanich. Plus another year of Indiana Vassilev and Klauss and Edward Löwen. Here’s how they did:
Jackson: 895 minutes, -0.27 Goals Added (G+).
Watts: 1124 minutes, -0.37 G+.
Adeniran: 704 minutes, +0.05 G+.
Markanich: 1471 minutes, +0.07 G+.
Vassilev: 1838 minutes, 3 goals, 4 assists.
Klauss: 1961 minutes, 5 goals, 3 assists.
Löwen: 1858 minutes, 5 goals, 2 assists.
That’s all math-speak for a lot of mediocrity.
I think Timo Baumgartl, who arrived on a free after departing Schalke 04 in the summer, is supposed to shore up the back line? But I also think that a part-time CB for a mid-tier Bundesliga 2 team might not be MLS caliber. Conrad Wallem joins from Slavia Prague, who current sit atop the table in the Czech 1st division; Prague also played in Europa League till they were knocked out last week. Wallem, however, only played 55 minutes for them over the past six months. In other words Wallem and Baumgartl, to me, aren’t significant signings.
Maybe those young guys I mentioned weren’t ready last year, but they are now. Maybe my vision is clouded by how much St. Louis City overachieved in year one. Maybe STL are going to wait till the summer for a more significant move. Whatever the plan is in St Louis, I’m not clear on what it is.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Finish in 2024: 8th, 47 points, 13-8-13 WTL, Eliminated in First Round by LAFC
Goals For in 2024: 52
Goals Against in 2024: 49
Key Additions: LW Jayden Nelson
Key Subtractions: M Ryan Raposo, W Fafa Picault, GK Joe Bendik,
Got better? Or got worse?: ⬆️⬇️ About the same.
The pace of change in soccer is slow. Glacially slow. Globally, soccer teams that have their shit together dominate for decades. Barcelona. Juventus. Liverpool. Until, eventually they don’t, and then they’re in the wilderness for a decade or more. Manchester United and Leeds. DC United. The also-rans also tend to stay also-rans. there are a few soccer clubs that never seem to get it together. Middlesbrough FC. Parma6. New York Red Bulls.
I know I talked a lot of shit about San Jose in their preview: the team is a total mess and they brought in Bruce Arena? But at least San Jose are, like, trying stuff. Vancouver, since their beginnings in MLS in 2011 have been almost totally and completely irrelevant. They haven’t finished higher than sixth since 2017. They’ve *never* made it past the second round of the playoffs. The ‘honors’ page on their wikipedia lists a bunch of Canadian Championships, which is a fucking joke. There are only three MLS teams in Canada – listing the Canadian Championship as an accomplishment is the equivalent of keeping stats in U5 soccer. ‘Timmy’s Expected Goals in the final third is 0.4 G/90 higher against teams where the majority of kids are literally crying on the sidelines to their moms for another oreo or staring at the sun.’
By all this I mean I’m annoyed at having to preview Vancouver again because what even is the fucking point? Sixth, eighth, twelfth, who cares? VWFC is the hotel art of MLS. They are NPC FC.7
I might be mad because I said nice things about them last year and they let me down. In 2023 I wrote ‘Vancouver hasn’t been very good in a long while, and they turn over a ton of their roster in an effort to fix that, and then they don’t congeal, and they turn over the roster. Who’s to say if this year is the year that they actually get it right? I doubt it.’ That pretty much nailed it, and yet I am forced to vomit up more words about this team in 2025. And so I’m salty.
They didn’t do much in the offseason; maybe less than almost any other team in the league. Maybe their one move, Jamaican winger Jayden Nelson, who was brought in from Roseborg in Sweden, is a good move that improves them. I dunno. The core of this team, Brian White and Ryan Gauld, are always a lot of fun to watch. Their new manager, Jesper Sørenson, joins the club after skippering Brøndby in the Danish league in 2023-24. They got fifth. He got fired.
Vancouver is a beautiful city. The mountains are gorgeous. They have some of the best sushi in North America. It’s just such a shame their soccer team is so aggressively mediocre, year after year.
Zack Steffen’s -9.1 xG+/- was league worst. 😬
OK, that’s not that recent.
In all three seasons since 2015 that the Quakes qualified for the playoffs, 2017, 2020, and 2023, they had a first round road game, which they lost.
Dave Romney’s fine. Nick Lima’s fine. Carlos Gruezo’s tough tackling replacement is Mark-Anthony Kaye? I dunno, man.
They added Joaquin Fernandez from Trabzonspor in the summer, but he only played 115 minutes. Maybe he starts this year? I don’t get it.
Founded in 1913. Two bankruptcies. Spent the majority of their lifespan in Serie B and Serie C. Over their 111 year lifespan, Parma has zero Serie A titles. This is a level of incompetence and futility New York Red Bull cannot even conceive of.
This is a little unfair. In 2017 and 2018 they had homegrown Alphonso Davies tearing up the league. That was pretty cool. They sold him to Bayern Munich for $22 million. That was pretty cool too. The Rapids haven’t struck gold quite like that in their history.