Rapids Needs Going into 2025: Pt. 2

Midfielders, wingers, and strikers! We continue analyzing the Rapids needs going into this season.

Midfield phenom Ollie Larraz signing for his loyal fans. Image c/o John Babiak, @Photog_JohnB on X.

Here goes part 2 of our series addressing the roster needs of the Colorado Rapids going into 2025. For part 1, click here.

We’re back and we’re nerding out about the roster! Changes will be made, and although I cannot predict who we buy or how much we spend, I can reasonably predict what positions the Rapids will need to get, or where Colorado need upgrades. Although there was that one time I said the Rapids should go get Jermaine Jones, and then a month later, they went and got Jermaine Jones. So sometimes my crystal ball is pretty crystal.

A reminder from part 1: Colorado has 25 players on the roster right now. There are 2 goalkeepers, 4 full backs, and 5 center backs; 8 midfielders, 3 wingers, and 2 strikers.

A second reminder: our rating system is on a four-color rating scale. Green ( 🟩 ) is ‘we’re good here’; Yellow ( 🟨 ) is ‘upgrade would be nice.’ Orange ( 🟧 )means ‘we kind of need help’. Red ( 🟥 ) is ‘uh-oh, we can’t start the season this way.’⁴

Central Midfielders

Cole Bassett, 2896 minutes, 2.06 Goals Added; Djordje Mihailovic, 2778 min, 1.42 G+;

Conor Ronan, 2030 min, 0.88 G+; Oliver Larraz, 2438 min, -0.69 G+;

Wayne Fredrick 4 min, G+ NA; Sam Bassett, rookie ; Daouda Amadou, rookie

Level of Need: Green 🟩. In fact, we’re kinda all full up here.

…

Do you guys remember the tv ad for the gas station convenience store AM/PM. The tagline was ‘too much good stuff.’ No? Here, I found it for you. No thanks necessary.

That’s the Rapids midfield. It’s probably the most stacked midfield in Rapids history.¹ Too much good stuff.

In the likely preferred 4-2-3-1, Colorado have four players fighting for three spots. Both Cole Bassett and Djordje Mihailovic want to be the team’s number 10/attacking midfielder, but Bassett looked better as a deeper-lying midfielder/shuttler with Mihailovic on the pitch alongside him. Conor Ronan and Oliver Larraz are both capable of being defensive midfielders, but each brings different attributes to the role.

You see from the Goals Added² chart above that Ronan provides excellent passing and fair possession. But his -0.07 Interrupting G+ means he’s pretty much league-average for a d-mid at breaking up plays as a defender. Larraz, on the other hand, turns over the ball more than you’d like, with a -0.34 Dribbling G+ and a -0.45 Passing G+; but his Interrupting G+ of +0.31 and Fouling G+ of +0.21 are both good.

So is your best midfield three Mihailovic-Bassett-Ronan? I dunno: feels a little light in defense, which puts pressure on the center backs to make stops. Is your best three Mihailovic-Bassett-Larraz? It would be if Ollie can make improvements this year in not turning over the ball in the midfield to give our opponents dangerous opportunities in the counter-attack. You could try and put all four of them on the field - with Bassett playing as like a wing shuttler in 4-2-3-1, but I feel like he was stuck out there in the past in Robin Fraser’s first campaign and it was more-or-less a total waste.

Maybe you resurrect the Diamond 4-4-2, which hasn’t been used since <shudder> Anthony Hudson’s days? I like that idea, but do we really have a second striker that has demonstrated they deserve a full-time starting job? Could be Yapi. Could be that a Diamond Midfield with Yapi and Rafa at striker creates more problems than it solves. And also, I feel like Chris Armas is pretty wedded to a 4-2-3-1.

For now, the best thing is to accept that rotating your midfielders is a good thing.

And with that, we now contend with our other problem: how the heck do we find a few minutes here and there for Sam Bassett, Wayne Fredrick, and Daouda Amadou?³

(Non-sequitor: every time I read the words Daouda Amadou this gets stuck in my head. You’re welcome.)

Those guys will play in Open Cup and for Rapids 2, and one of them may be loaned out to USL because otherwise they’ll barely see the field.

This section is listed as ‘green’ because the team is absolutely rock solid here; no need for additional bodies or an upgrade. That said, if the right midfielder came along at a DP level and we could get them, I absolutely would make the move. I think there’s a world where you improve the team at a few spots before opening day and conclude ‘this team is good enough for fourth in the Western Conference.’ And then there’s going out and getting a top DP midfielder to form a dominant midfield three of ‘Mihailovic, Bassett, and X’ that gets you a trophy, whereas X is a player like Ademola Lookman or Hakan Calhanoglu in Italy; Luka Modrić or Takefuso Kubo in Spain; or Abdeoulaye Doucouré or Thomas Partey in England.⁴

This is, by the way, a hugely important point. The Rapids have immediate roster needs. But winning MLS Cup requires leveling up at any position, any way you can. And I think, for instance, a Mihailovic-Bassett-Luka Modrić midfield would be

And before you say ‘you’re on crack rabbi Luka Modrić is too old’: dude is 39 years old and he’s ninth in La Liga in Expected Assists per 90. Damn the torpedoes, Fran and Pádraig.

Wingers

Kévin Cabral, 1463 minutes, +1.39 G+; Calvin Harris, 1688 min +0.19 G+;

Omir Fernandez, 1888 min, -0.89 G+; Kimani Stewart-Baynes, 212 min, -0.26 G+

Level of Need: Red 🟥 . Really really red. Communist-like-Stalin-red.

…

2024 was the year I said ‘I don’t hate Kévin Cabral.’ And in fact, more times than I expected, I said things on the podcast like ‘I thought Kévin Cabral had a really good game.’ I think it’s even possible that I said on one occasion he was our best player on the night. I might have thrown up a little in my mouth when I said it.

Cabral scored 5 goals on an xG of 6.17⁵, and had a Receiving G+ of +1.62, which was 15th in all of MLS. Sure he makes a lot of money and was hurt a bit last year. He was still our best winger.

Still; Calvin Harris and his roughly-league-average +0.19 Overall G+ was our next-best winger, and mostly just because there weren’t a lot of great choices. Jonathan Lewis got close to his typical ‘get five goals’⁶ but also frequently did his traditional ‘maddeningly dribble it into the box with no intention of passing’ each night.⁷ That’s probably a little harsh, but after five seasons, Lewis was a known quantity. In 2024 gave the Rapids 903 minutes and a +0.21 G+, so obviously we need a new player to pick up those minutes. Omir Fernandez was pretty meh; his -0.84 Dribbling G+ was worst on the team. He had multiple opportunities to become the starting right mid, and just never seized the moment. I really like the idea of Kimani Stewart-Baynes, because he’s fast and because in short bursts he looks wonderful. But extrapolate his limited 212 minutes and negative G+ out to a full 2000 minutes and … yikes.

In other words, if you tilt the glass just right, maybe we have one good and one average winger, and a thin bench of maybes. The Rapids either need to splash some cash on several promising players or take the suggestion I made above of going to a 4-4-2 Diamond. I’m fairly certain they think they can find two players here that can help them, so for now let’s forget the diamond.

It might not be easy, or cheap. Cabral’s impressive output in 2024 cost the team nearly a million dollars (the LA Galaxy were on the hook for half his salary, and will be again in 2025.) By comparison, the Galaxy went out and got Joseph Paintsil from Genk in Belgium; he was paid $4.1 million plus a reported $9 million transfer fee. He produced an impressive 10 goals and 7 assists with a +0.74 G+. Colorado could go this path: spend big money in an established second tier league like Turkey, Portugal, or Belgium for an in-his-prime player. The team has around $4 million in GAM from the sale of Miguel Navarro to Talleres in Argentina and from the sale of Moïse Bombito to OGC Nice.⁸ Would be awesome! Would also be against this teams general operating procedure, which is to get players that are a little more under the radar.

Another option would be to acquire a player in-league like Bongokuhle Hlongwane at Minnesota United: a guy making $655,000, churning out a 0.69 Total G+ rate in 2024. Nice. Those guys are hard to find and harder still to chisel loose, but there are definitely some teams that have a disgruntled bench guy that thinks they just need a chance. There are also teams that see a guy with 0.5 to 1.0 G+ and think he can be replaced by someone flashier and more expensive that they might bring in from South America or Europe. Think of Seattle, Atlanta, LAFC and Inter Miami, with players like Miami’s Leo Afonso, Atlanta’s Xande Silva, or LAFC’s David Martinez. They’re all good players, but those teams want to constantly upgrade to ‘great players’, and that means everything is negotiable.

The last option, of course, is the ‘develop/draft your own.’ That’s how Seattle got wide winger Paul Rothrock, a Sounders Academy guy who ended up playing college soccer with Notre Dame and Georgetown and then getting drafted by Toronto. Then he moved over to Tacoma Defiance and was called up by the Sounders in 2024, where he recorded 1476 minutes and a +0.65 Total G+ and scored 5 goals, while earning roughly the senior minimum of $89,716. That’s excellent.

Looking at our academy, Rapids 2, and the players drafted in this year’s and last years draft, Colorado is thin at winger. I like academy forward Christian Tigre Sanchez – a run-at-you speed merchant with a nose for goal – but he’s only 16 and not ready for prime time. So there probably isn’t help from within, at least in the short term.

Colorado will add some players at this spot. The additions they make, or don’t make, might be the key to the entire 2025 season.

Striker

Rafael Navarro, 3063 minutes, 0.79 Total G+, 15 goals, 17.92 xG;

Darren Yapi, 939 minutes, 0.97 Total G+, 2 goals, 2.28 xG;

Level of Need: Greenish-Yellow 🟩 🟨 . There’s a need for a backup, or at least depth, even if that’s someone who can play both on the wing and at striker, sort of like Calvin Harris.

…

Rafa’s 2024 year was the best-ever performance of a Rapids striker for Expected Goals in the 12 years the statistic has been in use. And in Rapids history, only Conor Casey’s 16 goals in 2009 tops what the Brazilian wonder achieved.

Image via American Soccer Analysis

Rafa is signed through 2027 with a club option for 2028, and he’s in his prime at just 24 years old. As long as he stays healthy, and doesn’t pull a Shkëlzen Gashi⁹, he will be a cornerstone of the franchise for his tenure.

Darren Yapi, after what must have been a frustrating year in 2023 of getting minutes but not goals (I remember him having two called back, at least), had a very good 2024 in mostly relief duty. His first goal came in July in a 4-1 shellacking of St Louis in the 90th minute. His second goal was a game winner in added time on a brilliant run in behind which Djordje Mihailovic perfectly timed. Yapi’s +0.52 Dribbling G+ was third best, behind only Navarro and Cole Bassett. This is a player that is poised for something great.

That said, as it stands, there’s no striker depth. There needs to be a contingency for injury; some depth for squad rotation; and perhaps a challenger to the throne for both of these strikers.

The obvious answer here is Rapids 2025 Superdraft pick Alex Harris. The sophomore from Cornell has a highlight tape of fantastic finishes: he can slot it home or pick out the top corner or bend it around defenders. He could do it against Dartmouth and Colgate and Georgetown, but can he do it on a frigid night in DSGP against Minnesota United? Remains to be seen, but I do imagine that this is currently the plan for Colorado. They spent good GAM ($162,500) to move up in the draft for Harris. It only makes sense they plan to sign him and see what he can do.

…

That’s my full preview of Rapids transfer needs.

In short, I think they go get 2 wingers, 1 full back, and 1 center back.¹⁰ One of these players will be a U22 initiative player. It also seems possible that they will trade or sell one or two current players, possibly at the midfield due to the logjam there. Or possibly the Rapids will move center back Andreas Maxsø, who hasn’t been that impressive, and might also be in demand by new Vancouver Whitecaps manager Jesper Sørensen, who was Maxsø’s gaffer at Brøndby.

That is definitely the first time I have ever written four ø’s in sentence before.

1. Although the Chris Henderson-Mark Chung-Carlos Valderrama-Pablo Mastroeni midfield of 2002 would have been pretty cool to witness. I was not following the MLS in those days.

2. Here’s a one page explainer on what Goals Added is.

3. Radical idea: sell Djordje Mihailovic for a lot of money to get a midfield three of the Bassett Brothers and Conor Ronan. Less radical idea: sell Ronen to make room for Sam. You might hate both these moves. Remember: buy low, sell high, and moneyball means doing math and taking risks.

4. I say like because I think all of these players are a financial level or two above what the Rapids would spend; but with Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud, Jordi Alba and Luis Suarez coming to MLS, and with the relative ages of the six players I mentioned, I don’t think any of them is an impossibility to come to MLS. They are not likely to come to Colorado. But you never know. Really, a U22 initiative player that looks a lot *like* Griezmann or Modrić would be fantastic to me.

5. Reminder: this means he ‘got into the spots and produced a shot that math sez should produce 6.17 goals, and he scored on 5 of those opportunities.’ And that’s quite good, and we are happy with that.

6. Lewis came to the Rapids in 2019. Each year his total goal output was as follows: 5 goals, 5 goals, 7 goals, 5 goals, 1 goal, 3 goals.

7. Lewis’ assist output each year since he joined was: 3 assists , 0 assists, 1 assist, 2 assists, 0 assists, 3 assists. Dude just does not like to pass. Which is fine, but if that’s the case, he needs to have scored roughly twice as many goals as he did.

8. The Bombito sale brought in a reported $7.7 million transfer fee, but only $3 million can be converted to GAM. However, Tom Bogert reported just yesterday that MLS teams can now buy players – ‘trade players for cash’ is the specific language – from one another for money that is neither GAM nor TAM in a specific limited number of transactions. So maybe the Rapids could spend more? Still, I see them continuing to spend carefully and within limits rather than wildly.

9. Gashi was fantastic in 2016, including being the only Rapids player ever to earn MLS Goal of the Year. Then in the offseason he bought a yacht and hung out in Dubai. Then he got hurt in training camp to start 2017; rumor was that he came in unfit. The 2017 season never really got going for him. In mid-2018 I reviewed his acquisition by the Front Office as a ‘D’. In March, 2019, the team cut him and ate his $1.7 million salary as a total loss [and I wrote an article that was front page of the Denver Post Sports section, yay me.] So ‘pulling a Gashi’ is Rapids-ese for ‘one good year, two or more shit years’.

One could argue this term is interchangable with ‘Pulling a Tim Howard’, although I think a Tim Howard is a 3-year deal where the 1st is good, the 2nd is league average, and the third is total crap.

10. If the Rapids sell a midfielder and a center back, well then they’ll be acquiring/signing 2 wingers, 1 full back, 2 center backs, and 1 midfielder. Hot stove!