Western Conference Preview 2024: Part I
The new season is upon us. How are we shaping up? How about the rest of the conference? Here's part one of our research.
Boy that offseason just flew right by didn’t it? After a forgettable 2023 season – and honestly, a forgettable 2022 season, too, those lovable scamps the Colorado Rapids are back in 2024 to make another run at getting into the playoffs.1 Expectations in December for this team were at rock-bottom: ‘don’t embarass us’ seemed to be the cri de coeur for fans entering the offseason. However, I think most of us have been pleasantly surprised with what the team came up with. We may not win MLS Cup with this lot, but at least we shall take the pitch against Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Jordi Alba, and Sergio Busquets on April 6 and not be humiliated. Probably.
We’re gonna preview the Rapids, briefly, as well as six other Western Conference teams this week. We won’t be actually trying to pick finishing positions for the season, yet. I’m going to let a few more transactions fall into place before I do that, and I’ll do that over on The Platform Formerly Known As Twitter.
We’ll go in ‘order of which teams the Rapids will play first’, because why not.
Colorado Rapids
2023 Final Position in Conference: 14th out of 14
Key Additions for this season: Djordje Mihailovic, Zack Steffen, Sam Vines, Jasper Löffelsend, Omir Fernandez
Key Subtractions: William Yarbrough, Jack Price, Max Alves
Everything about the Rapids in 2024 will be different. The team under Robin Fraser in 2023 wanted to create gaps by stretching the field with wingers, and spent a lot of time bypassing the midfield and hoping to dominate on set pieces. None of that worked in the slightest, and so Fraser and a lot of the critical pieces for his approach are gone. In comes former NYRB coach Chris Armas, an aficionado of a defense-minded 4-2-3-1. The rebuilding efforts for the team, then, began by retaining players that would work well in that system: solo striker (Rafael Navarro); defensive midfielder (Connor Ronan), a mid who can play wide or in half-spaces (Cole Bassett), and a CB who can both defend and distribute (Andreas Maxsø).
Armas, along with Rapids President Padraig Smith and Sporting Director Fran Taylor, have remade this team to have a strong, possession-minded midfield. Talent-wise, the team added *three* USMNT-capped players (Mihailovic, Steffen, and Vines) to add to what was on hand, as well as a d-mid from RSL in Löffelsend and an attacking mid from NYRB named Omir Fernandez.
There are still big questions with this team; questions that will determine if this is a playoff-quality squad or just another Rapids crew of bargain MLS pieces in a league that is increasingly spending on big name talent. Is homegrown midfielder Cole Bassett prepared to produce an 8 goal, 12 assist, 3000 minute season as a midfield shuttler? Is Sam Vines finally healthy after two stop-start years in Belgium with Royal Antwerp? Is Zack Steffen a top-five goalkeeper in MLS after collecting dust on the Manchester City bench? Can Djordje Mihailovic return to the heights he achieved in 2021 with CF Montreal, where he tabbed 4 goals, 13 assists in 2796 minutes? Will Kevin Cabral do anything useful at all? Can Brazilian striker Rafael Navarro score goals, and if he can’t, is they anybody else on this team with a nose for goal?
These questions are what makes the Rapids, once again, the kind of team that will either put up a solid season and finish fifth; or prove to be a total train wreck that runs themselves out of the playoffs before July. It’s frustrating, but hey, at least being a Rapids fan is never boring.
Offseason got better/got worse: Got a lot better.
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: They are the Rapids
xDog Factor: Medium-low. Michael Barrios departed mid-2023, and Sam Nicholson left in January, and the two were both irritating and feisty. Jack Price was also a fiery competitor. This team will need someone to emerge from their long shadows to be the spark-plug.
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Portland Timbers
First Match against Rapids: Away, February 24 (Season Opener)
2023 Final Position in Conference: 10th out of 14
Key Additions for this season: Kamal Miller, Maxime Crepeau
Key Subtractions: Jaroslaw Niezgoda, Sebastian Blanco, Yimmi Chara
In four years with Portland, Striker Jaroslaw Niezgoda never played a full season: suffering an ACL tear in mid-2020 that also nerfed his 2021 season. He had groin problems in 2022 but was healthy enough for 1900 minutes and 9 goals. In 2023, he tore his ACL again; he was released this past offseason. With his departure along with Yimmi Chara, the team has only one DP; the Brazilian Evander, who had a solid but unspectacular first year with the club.
Portland could add a great DP or two before the season starts – one rumor connects former Premier League hopeful Jesse Lingard with the Timbers.
As it stands, Santiago Moreno is their brightest light. The 22 year old Columbian produced modest but promising numbers as an attacking mid for the second year in a row. He probably needs to take a step forward in 2024 for Portland to compete.
The worry this year is roughly the same as last year: the Timbers still count on big minutes from ageless warriors Dairon Asprilla (31), Eric Miller (31), Larrys Mabiala (36), and Diego Chara – who turns 38 in April. Kamal Miller’s a great pickup. Portland needs to clone him like six times though, because the rest of this roster has me scratching my head a little.
Offseason got better/got worse: Stayed the same?
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: Worse
xDog Factor: High. Diego Chara will be out there murdering dudes in the midfield, drawing a yellow and a sour face from Alan Chapman. And he’s 87 years old, and he’s still rocking cornrows. This passes all the xDog tests for me.
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Real Salt Lake
First Match against Rapids: Away, March 9
2023 Final Position in Conference: 5th out of 14
Key Additions for this season: Fidel Barajas
Key Subtractions: Jefferson Savarino, Damir Kreilach
RSL beat Colorado in all three meetings last year, which is pretty damn dispiriting. Wanna feel worse? Since 2018, the Rapids are 2-3-11 against our enemies from the Wasatch Mountains. This … cannot continue. We don’t currently have a rivalry relationship right now with RSL - we have a cannonfodder relationship with RSL. We take the pitch, and they blast us to smithereens. They are Zed. We are the gimp.
Their offseason has so far been an attempt to clear space for younger guys in house to step up, and possibly to make room for a new, as yet acquired DP. Diego Luna, the 20 year old attacking mid, is the main man for RSL. He is a joy to watch, and as long as he has a supporting cast, RSL will compete this year. Colombians Braian Ojeda and Carlos Gomez might be the attacking pieces that will step in to replace the departed Savarino and Kreilach and find the back of the net.
Defender Justin Glad and Goalkeeper Zach MacMath anchor a league-average defense that conceded 50 goals in 2023; 17th in a league with 29 teams. Maybe that’ll work again in 2024? Maybe regression is imminent: RSL finished 5th with a goal differential of -2. A goal differential like that means they probably should have finished 8th. Here’s hoping for 2024 that math hates Utah.
Offseason got better/got worse: Got worse, but rumor has it there’s still moves to be made.
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: Worse
xDog Factor: Medium. Luna is a whirling dirvish. But RSL’s peak xDog pairing was Albert Rusnak and Damir Kreilach, who were both whiny insufferable pricks who had a knack for torturing Colorado with goals at the exact right (wrong) moment. Both are now gone.
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Seattle Sounders
First Match against Rapids: Away, March 16
2023 Final Position in Conference: 2nd out of 14
Key Additions for this season: Pedro De La Vega
Key Subtractions: Nico Lodeiro
Seattle has just put one or two pieces into the puzzle each year to keep them on track or make them better, and it means that they constantly have very good players in the primes of their careers, season after season.
Stefan Frei became a Sounder waaaay back in 2014, followed by homegrown player Cristian Roldan in 2015. In 2016 they brought on Nico Lodeiro and youth academy prodigy Jordan Morris. In 2017, they added Nouhou Tolo. In 2018, they added Alex Roldan and Raul Ruidiaz. 2020 saw the additions of Joao Pedro and Yeimar Gomez. In 2021 the Rave Green signed u22 initiative player Léo Chú from Brazilian side Gremio. In 2022, they added Albert Rusnak and centerback Jackson Ragen, who was in their youth program since the age of 10.2 In 2024, Nico Lodeiro, age 34, gets swapped out for Pedro De La Vega, age 22.
That’s the entire 2024 starting lineup, with players on the roster stretching back a decade, with no more than one or two key pieces added each year. Three came from in-house, one from the Superdraft, most of the rest acquired from abroad. You can’t do it any better or smoother than that.3
The only chink in the armor is that Seattle finished second in the Western Conference but only put together a 14-11-9 (WTL) record, which is underwhelming. They weren’t unbeatable last year, and they didn’t make it to a cup final (MLS Cup, Leagues Cup, Concacaf Champions League, Lamar Hunt US Open Cup) for the first time since 2018. Simply put, Seattle expects each year to be the best there is. Plain and simple. They believe they should wake up every morning and piss excellence. So is a team made up of 10 of last years ‘very good but not champion-level’ players going to be champions with one new guy?
Offseason got better/got worse: Got better. Unless Pedro De La Vega is a total bust, this team is an absolute juggernaut.
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: Way, way better.
xDog Factor: Medium-high. Raul Ruidiaz’ neck tattoos and double earrings are xDog. Nouhou’s insane long bomb shots and whole vibe is very xDog. Jordan Morris with the ball at his feet and too much space in the final third is going to go full xDog on you. However, Seattle’s incessant ‘we invented soccer’ attitude, as well as Brian Schmetzer’s overwhelming dorkiness is decidedly not xDog.
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Houston Dynamo
First Match against the Rapids: Home on March 23
2023 Final Position in Conference: 4th out of 14
Key Additions for this season: None yet
Key Subtractions: Teenage Hadebe, Corey Baird
I didn’t really recognize 2023 Houston Dynamo in comparison to earlier, more familiar iterations. The 2017-2019 squads was built around Romell Quito and Alberth Elis; and then the 2022 team was Fafa Picault and Darwin Quintero and Memo Rodriguez and Tim Parker, with head coach Paulo Nagamura - and they were BAD. They added Mexican international Hector Herrera and Coco Carasquilla midseason, but things didn’t improve, and Nagamura was axed at the end of 2022.
The 2023 team came in basically as ‘hey, a full season of Herrera and Carasquilla and we’ll be fine,’ and I was like nah, but the Dynamo were like ‘actually, yeah,’ as they finished 4th with a 14-9-11 (WTL) record. Herrera did all the things fans hoped he would do, and Carasquilla was good, and Corey Baird had 8 goals, 5 assists, and attacking mid Amine Bassi scored 10 goals, and Houston were fun under DC United castoff HC Ben Olsen. They also won US Open Cup in a final matchup with Inter Miami in which Lionel Messi was out due to injury.
If they add just one or two quality players to the lineup - or if Ibrahim Aliyu, their 22 year-old Nigerian striker, can blossom into a double-digit goal guy, then Houston might threaten for one of the three cups available to MLS teams this season.
Offseason got better/got worse: Stayed the same.
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: Better
xDog Factor: Low. I don’t know all these players, but the ones I do know; Daniel Steres, Steve Clark, Artur; are all good solid Johnny Lunchpail MLS players; AKA, ‘low on xDog.’ The aforementioned guys are also as bland as baloney and American cheese on white bread. A good sandwich, but not what someone would call ‘exotic’ or ‘spicy’.
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LAFC
First Match against Rapids: Home, March 30
2023 Final Position in Conference: 3rd out of 14
Key Additions for this season: Hugo Lloris
Key Subtractions: George Chiellini, Diego Palacios, Maxime Crepeau
LAFC are one of two or three teams in MLS that seem to know how to make four DP spots out of three4 - getting big name players or talented guys to accept TAM level contracts - or perhaps “TAM level contracts” (wink wink) to play in Exposition Park. They also always seem to add some kind of explosive talent at the midsummer, which is why any and all predictions about how they look is doomed to look silly in hindsight.
The black and gold still have MLS MVP runner-up Denis Bouanga. They still have box to box midfield ninja Ilié. They still have two of the league’s best CB’s in Aaron Long and Jesus Murillo. And at least for now, they still have Carlos Vela and Kellyn Acosta, although both have been rumored to move on.
LAFC will spend their money, and use it to acquire a good player; they always do. They had an open DP spot for all of 2023, didn’t use it, and still went all the way to MLS Cup final and the Concacaf Champions League final, falling short in both. I think they’ll probably spend the money in hopes it’ll bring them a trophy in 2024.
I will add that LAFC are weird with their keepers. In 2018 and 2019 they had Tyler Miller; he was good, they were good, but then they let him go. In 2020 they had Kenneth Vermeer and Pablo Sisniega. They were mediocre, LA was mediocre; Vermeer was let go. In 2021 they let three guys fight for the job: Tomas Romero, Jamal Blackmon, and Sisniega. All had worse-than-average G-xG rates, and Romero’s was second-worst in the league. LAFC finished 9th in the Western Conference, their worst finish ever as a club. In 2022 and 2023 they had Maxime Crepeau. His G-xG wasn’t anything special; he was a little worse than league average in 2022 and just around average in 2023; but LAFC went to the MLS Cup Final both years. Doesn’t matter. LA let him go, and now they’re hoping former Tottenham keeper Hugo Lloris will be the man. I’m skeptical.
Offseason got better/got worse: Got worse.
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: Better
xDog Factor: Medium . Bouanga has so much swagger, and Ryan Hollingshead plays fullback the way Johnny Depp played Hunter Thompson rolling into a casino high on mescaline and pills in ‘Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas’: just a full-on chaos merchant stumbling into Ws. It does feel, however, that this team is missing something, personality-wise. In general, you players should be more entertaining than your owner. Will Farrell might want to consider suiting up to increase this team’s xDog-edness.
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San Jose Earthquakes
First Match against Rapids: Away, April 13
2023 Final Position in Conference: 9th out of 14
Key Additions for this season: Preston Judd, Alfredo Morales, William Yarbrough
Key Subtractions: Cade Cowell, Jonathan Mensah, Jamiro Monteiro (?)
In 2022, SJ’s theory was ‘Jeremy Ebobisse, Cristian Espinoza, and Jackson Yueill will ball out and we’ll be fine.’ Ebobisse, Espinoza, and Yueill indeed balled out under Matias Almeyda and interim coach Alex Covelo, as the three combined had 27 goals and 13 assists. However, San Jose finished second-to-last in goals conceded that year as their leaky defense allowed in 69 goals (not nice), and San Jose finished last in the Western Conference.
In 2023, the theory seemed to be ‘let Ebo, Cristian, and Yueill ball out, but let’s defend a little.’ It sort of worked. Luchi Gonzalez’ team had a more balanced 39 Goals For, 43 Goals Against as the Quakes squeaked into the last playoff spot. The big three had 24 goals, 14 assists combined.
For this season, the changes has been minor so far. LA Galaxy II’s Preston Judd was a goal machine in USL, and mlssoccer’s Matt Doyle seems to think the 24 year old is going to blow up at the MLS level. Otherwise, San Jose haven’t done much. They might be promoting from within - letting Benji Kikanov (age 24), Daniel Munie (age 23), and Niko Tsakiris (age 18) get a shot at LW, CB, and midfield, respectively.
With the possible exception of New York Red Bulls, San Jose are probably the MLS originals in the worst shape of late. They haven’t finished top of the conference or with a trophy since 2012. They did inaugurate a cool new stadium in 2015; but in just the past few years since, the $100 million Paypal Park has quickly been surpassed by larger and more impressive MLS fields like LAFC’s $350 million BMO Stadium and Columbus Crew’s $314 million Lower.com Field.
By all this I mean: San Jose don’t seem particularly ambitious. They’re an MLS Original with a ho-hum stadium and no clear aspirations for trophies. No wonder I’ve always liked San Jose; they’re basically the Colorado Rapids, but for tech bros.
Offseason got better/got worse: Got worse.
Team is in better/worse shape than the Rapids: Worse
xDog Factor: Low. Chris Wondolowski was 100% xDog, and now that he’s retired, the player with the most sauce or attitude on this team is hard-tackling defensive midfielder Carlos Gruezo. This team is pretty far from their high-xDog glory days: when Steven Lenhart and Alan Gordon formed the ‘Bash Bros,’ and the goonies never said die.
For normal teams, writers write ‘another run at MLS Cup.’ This team is not MLS Cup caliber. Getting to the MLS playoffs is possible, though. Maybe.
Chicago Fire picked Ragen in the second round 2021 MLS Superdraft, and traded his rights to Seattle in 2022 for a third round pick. Ragen has been a defensive stalwart for the past year and a half. Chicago’s front office makes terrible, terrible decisions.
The 10th and 11th guys are Cristian Roldan who joined the team in 2015, has 243 appearances, and is STILL only 28 years old, and goalkeeper Stefan Frei,
Inter Miami tried this and got popped for it in 2020. LA Galaxy originated this trick in 2016 when, with Robbie Keane, Steven Gerrard, and Giovani Dos Santos on the roster, they added Ashley Cole AND Nigel de Jong. All of this was allegedly legal - the Galaxy used deferred contracts. I can’t really prove that, because the MLSPA Salary data for 2016 doesn’t include Nigel de Jong’s name at all. Hmmm.
Deigo Rubio was our best player. Why is he not in the Key Subtractions for 2024?