Backpass: The necessary adjustments
Two losses in a row. Four winless games. Time to think about what Robin Fraser needs to change.
A hallmark of the Robin Fraser era is a Rapids team that does not hit the skids.
In 2021 the Rapids never once strung together successive losses, which is quite impressive. Granted, the Rapids were very good in 2021 altogether - a key component to ‘not losing back-to-back games’ is simply ‘not losing at all’. But even in the super-bizarre 2020 season, the Rapids lost the two above-referenced games successively, and a pair of matches to start the ‘MLS is Back’ sequester mini-tournament, and that’s it. Robin Fraser, since his appointment to the Rapids on August 25, 2019, has never lost three matches in a row.1
My assumption is that this is because Robin adjusts. He sees what’s broken and makes changes. So here are a few things that Mr. Fraser might possibly want to change before our next match on Saturday against Charlotte FC.
1. Start the attack differently
Against Minnesota last Saturday, the Rapids attacked down the left side 41 percent of the time, while going down the middle 26 percent of the time and down the right side 33 percent of the time. The Rapids lost 3-1.
Against FC Dallas the week before, in another 3-1 loss, Colorado went down the left side more than the middle or the right again; left-sided attacks accounted for 43 percent of the total on the night.
The week before, in our 1-1 draw at home against Real Salt Lake, we went down the left side 42 percent of the time.
Folks, do you think maybe opponents are catching on?
When you know a team is more frequently going to come down the left side, there are a few things you can do in response. For one, your defenders can cheat a little to that side. For another, you can potentially put a midfielder or defender as a man marker on the most likely ball carrier coming in from that side - usually Lucas Esteves. And third, you can position your counter-attack to spring down that side once the Rapids turn it over, since odds are Colorado will be missing a left back - or, when Auston Trusty carries the ball up, a center back.
There’s more that a smart and nuanced tactician (i.e., not me) could do with the knowledge that a team has a tendency and over-reliance on a certain thing. Like a poker player with an obvious tell, the Rapids do a thing that is exploitable by opponents. We need to switch that up.
2. Limit high quality chances by the opposition
Colorado’s last game against Minnesota was a bit shocking in that the team looked on their heels for a big chunk of the second half, and easy to play through. That ultimately led to them conceding high-quality chances - which Minnesota converted.
Against Dallas, they conceded fewer good looks, as their xG Against was a more acceptable 1.4 xGA, but Dallas was feelin’ it nonetheless, and successfully converted their chances at a very good clip, especially that filthy long range banger from Brandon Servania.
If it is traitorous to admire a goal by an opponent that really upended a match and led to your team fully unraveling, then just call me Benedict Arnold. What a beaut that was.
RSL, meanwhile, turned in a measly 1.1 xGA in their match against us, so they didn’t really get into the good spots. Whether that was mostly due to the Rapids solid possession and defense or RSL’s incompetence on the night is another matter.
Overall on the season, the Rapids xGA stands at 8.72 according to American Soccer Analysis, good enough for 9th in MLS. That’s good, but not great, and 4.3 xGA of that came in just the last three matches.2 The defense has to tighten up, or perhaps the possession needs to be a little cleaner. Danny Wilson’s absence in the last game may have been a factor. Or perhaps, as I’ve been whining about on the podcast week after week, there are some real concerns about the 3-4-2-1 formation’s ability to shield the backline in the middle - that Mark-Anthony Kaye and Jack Price can be overrun in midfield by a 4-3-3, leaving us a little naked behind (tee hee… ‘naked behind’.)
3. Finishing
I mean, I’d be blind if I didn’t notice it, right? The Rapids finishing, particularly in the past three matches, has been poor.
Against MNUFC they got 1 goal on an xGF of 2.1.
Against FC Dallas they got 1 goal on an xGF of 2.1.
Against RSL they got 1 goal on an xGF of 1.7.
We need closers. We don’t have closers. Maybe we need to stop letting these guys have access to the free office coffee pot.
If the Rapids are not capable of improving their conversion rate - if we’re going to put goals away at a lower rate than the MLS average, then we have two tactical options - produce more quality chances than our opponents every match (knowing we aren’t as good in front of goal) or become more defensive and concede fewer chances. That’s it. I can’t use force of will to make Diego Rubio morph into Carlos Vela - we can hope that he produces above his historical average. We can hope Colorado will splash big cash to get a striker, but no sane Rapids fan expects that. For God’s sake they won’t even spend a paltry sum to upgrade the food options from ‘terrible’ to ‘mediocre’ or the cable package options from ‘poor’ to ‘good’. So if the scoring isn’t going to get better, than something else has to get better.
Like I said in the tweet, I don’t think we should put too much on the finishing.
But I also think that we can’t expect better than fourth overall in the West if we don’t get help at striker.
Some might whisper ‘shhhhh! Rabbi! What are you doing? You are tempting fate! Courting disaster!’ To that I say fiddlesticks. Soccer is not won by you wearing your lucky underwear while rubbing a rabbits foot. It’s 11 players doing the right things to beat 11 other players. I can’t jinx a damn thing.
Full disclosure - this is not entirely mathematically air tight. The ASA numbers and the MLS individual game numbers are not identical, so this total number might be off by +/- 0.2 or 0.3. Still, the point stands - we’ve been worse the last three games.