Backpass: The Magic of Michael Barrios
Hobbit. Wizard. Sprite. Jedi. Imp. Allomancer. Creator. Discombobulator. Afterburner. Michael Barrios is all of these things and more.
Usually, when you think of game-changing players, you think of dominant goal scorers, like Carlos Vela, or Diego Rubio, or Denis Bouanga. Or eye-catching playmakers, like Atlanta’s Thiago Almada . Or perhaps you think of ball-swatting shot-stoppers, like NE Revolution’s recently-departed Matt Turner, or Chicago Fire’s recently-departed Gaga Slonina.
You generally don’t conjure to mind a pacey, line-stretching hobbit like Michael Barrios. But he is, without a doubt, a game-changer for Colorado.
Barrios, the diminutive winger from Barranquilla, Colombia, doesn’t talk to english-speaking media much. Our unholy terror on wheels; this 5’4” imp with a Demolition man pompadour, prefers to let his work on the field do the talking. Over his three seasons with Colorado, he’s been an essential part of Robin Fraser’s game plan from week to week, whether he’s a starter or a sub.
Barrios offers three things that make him incredibly hard to deal with.1
First, the dude accelerates like a sooped-up muscle car in a drag race. When he decides he’s going to beat a guy for pace, that guy is beat, no matter who he his. Second, he can settle a pass with his right foot like an outfielder catches it with a glove. Hit him a 40-yard diagonal, and he can bring it down, in-stride, at pace, effortlessly. It boggles the mind. And third, he’s enough of a threat on the ball - both as a passer and as a finisher - that he can hurt you in the box just as precisely with a near-post screamer as he can with a devastating cut-back pass.
And this year, he’s been overwhelmingly effective, according to the math.
Barrios this season has 2 goals and 2.3 non-penalty Expected Goals in just 348 minutes (prior to Saturday’s match against Vancouver). That’s 0.59 xG per 90 minutes played. Compare that to 2022, when he had 4.3 xG in 1906 minutes, or 0.20 xGp90, and 2021, when he had 7.1 xG in 2093 minutes, or 0.31 xGp90. He’s currently on pace to produce 13.34 xG over approximately 2000 minutes. That would have been the 11th-best overall xG production of any player in 2022. Barrios also has 2 assists.
Yes, this level of output is probably unsustainable. It is probably the result of Michael having several very effective outings in relief. A productive player off the bench in the early season, if their stats are extrapolated to a full year, will be take advantage of that small sample size to suddenly make Alan Gordon look like Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Barrios is great, and also I think these numbers will probably come back down to earth.
All of these things – the raw production – are fabulous. But even when Barrios isn’t getting on the scoresheet with a goal or an assist, he’s productive. Because he stretches the field in ways that make everybody else on the Rapids more effective and troublesome. I’ll show you. I brought gifs.
Exhibit A: Barrios is faster than a speeding bullet…
This is from the Rapids match on April 15 against Charlotte, a match in which Colorado conceded two in the second half to go behind 2-1. Then Barrios, in extra time, got in behind fullback Jaylin Lindsey, as Diego Rubio peeled off to get a bit of space and unload a big diagonal pass. It was overhit a smidge, allowing CLT keeper George Marks to get to the ball first. But Marks spilled the ball; Barrios collected it and slotted it home, and the Rapids would make it 2-2 and save a point on the road.
This demonstrates what Barrios can produce if all goes right. His pace, his touch, his instinct for when to go – they all sync up perfectly (along with a GK error) to get a goal. This kind of ability is what has created 12 goals and 13 assists for Colorado in the past three years.
Of course, it’s not that easy. The problem with relying on this kind of play is that it is low probability. It’s a lot harder to hit a 40 yard diagonal ball in traffic to the exact perfect spot than it is to play a square ball2 ten yards to a player up the wing. It's hard for Barrios to time that run to not be offside. It's hard to receive that pass. And it's hard for your fastest players to make repeated 'high-intensity runs' in a match; you can only turn on the afterburners so many times before your sprints get a bit less sprinty. One of the main reasons MLS teams use the Second Spectrum tracking system 3 is so that performance analysts can detect what players make high-intensity runs frequently, how fast those runs go, and how effective they are.
So we love that Barrios can do this. But also, his ability to receive and score or assist goals from this type of play isn’t the only reason he’s magic.
Exhibit B: Michael stretches the field
Like Septimus Weasley’s magical tent at the Quidditch World Cup in Harry Potter, Michael Barrios has the ability to cast a spell on opponents that stretches things out to the benefit of his team.
In this play above, in Barrios’ match against Austin on March 25, Rapids Goalkeeper William Yarbrough bombs the ball 70 yards out of the back. Barrios sprints on to collect it, tapping it to redirect slightly as it hits the ground, while planning to collect it on the bounce and play through the defense. The Austin defender makes a semi-successful effort to clear it with a headed ball. But underneath, the Rapids have Sam Nicholson and Connor Ronan ready to pounce. Nicholson recovers the second ball, dribbles left, and puts a dangerous cross into the hands of the Austin keeper. Similtaneously, we see Max and Bryan Acosta jogging in, prepared to capitalize off a rebound or ready to lash a blast from the top of the box if the opportunity presents itself.
Barrios wasn’t the starting point of attack; Nicholson was. But without Barrios’ ability to stretch the field, and to put modestly-paced centerbacks into a panic, this play can’t be created. Barrios’ run opens space between the lines and creates space underneath. Nicholson and Ronan come into that space, unmarked. Creating situations for your fellow players in which they can operate, face-forward to the goal, with open real estate, is hugely beneficial, even when Barrios himself isn’t even on the ball. Note that Barrios at the end of this play is floating more or less unmarked to the back post, looking to bang in a goal. Only the punched save by Brad Stuver keeps that from happening. (Stuver would ultimately have 7 saves on the night as Austin and Colorado played to a 1-1 draw.)
The diagram above shows how Robin Fraser draws up the typical ‘Magic Mike’ deep threat play. The Rapids, in their customary 3-4-2-1, start with the ball on the backline and cycle it to Maxsø or Danny Wilson. Barrios hits the gas and the opposing fullback strains to go with him. Maxsø flips the switch (flip! flip!)
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and hits Barrios on the long bomb. Barrios will then take the shot, or dribble to the endline for a cutback to Rubio or Nicholson backpost.
Or! If he needs a step to control the ball, or his marker is between him and the goal, he’s now in a space to play it back and look for another option. And he’s probably (blue circle) got Max or Connor Ronan or Keegan Rosenberry there, and unmarked. Because the defenders are all racing to get into the box to deal with the immediate shooting threats. You’ve discombobulated the defense, and that means you’re going to have open options, as defenders have to make split second choices about who to cover.
There’s another aspect to the ‘Barrios Big Switch’ play - which is what it can produce for you even when you don’t run it. Let’s say in pic 1, Maxsø gets the ball. Barrios starts to make a run. Maxsø considers the long switch. The defenders follow Michael, and Max and Ronan run into space. Well, now, Maxsø suddenly has a square pass to Ronan as an option, or a medium pass to Max, maybe a through ball, in a more central position to the goal. Barrios’ run, or even the threat of it, creates options – some of which may be better options than the long diagonal. Now the Rapids have a relatively safe pass that gets them closer to the opposing team’s final third. It’s a win-win. Barrios doesn’t touch the ball, but his mere presence creates opportunity.4
Exhibit C: Watch them respect Barrios’ danger, and he makes them pay anyhow
In this play in the Rapids April 22 match with St. Louis City FC, Left Back John Nelson and Center Back Kyle Hiebert pickup and defend Barrios after he receives the pass. They know he’s got speed. They close him down like a pair of hawks. So Barrios dribbles away from them, and into a central space. Now he’s occupying midfielder Edward Löwen, who steps up to defend him. The rest of the defense is shifting to deal with Barrios’ movement, and Diego Rubio’s, and Max’s. STL defenders Hiebert and Tim Parker are pulled away by Rapids striker Darren Yapi. Rubio, meanwhile, ABSOLUTELY WALKS into a spot to receive a ball from Barrios. Now Right Back Jake Nerwinski is pulled off of Jonathan Lewis to defend Rubio. The all-alone Lewis will then get the pass from Rubio. Lewish gets a good look at goal, but lashes it high for the miss. A well worked opportunity all around – do that a few times a game, and you’re bound to score.
This play happens BECAUSE Barrios is fast and St Louis has to respect him, or they’ll get burned. And it happens BECAUSE he’s also a talented passer. And it happens because his clever movement through several zones forces reactions that create opportunities that other Rapids players exploit.
…
Now, you and I both know that all this fawning language might seem a little overblown. Barrios is small, fast, a deadly dribbler, in his 30s, and a South American. Despite all these obvious similarities with one Lionel Messi, he is not, in fact, Messi.
He’s not as clinical a finisher. His final third passing is very good, but not elite. And most importantly, he’s not nearly as effective over 75 or 90 minutes as he is in just 15 minutes; hence the reason he is predominantly an off-the-bench option for Frasier. But we’re talking about a TAM-level player5 that produces goals and assists regularly, who has been consistently healthy in his time in Colorado, and that creates for the team even when he doesn't appear on the score sheet.
Maybe it's not magic; it's just Michael being Michael. I still think it's worth wondering if he's an allomancer or a jedi, or perhaps even a wizard. Maybe he’s this kind of wizard6:
That’s more than good enough for me.
There’s a fourth thing. Like Diego Rubio, he’s a pest. He fouls. He flops. He gesticulates to refs. If you foul him, he grabs at his ankles and rolls around like he’s trying to win an Oscar for best supporting actor. You love to see it. But only because he’s on your team – if he played for anyone else, he’d be deeply disliked by every fan at DSGP.
A square ball is a pass on the ground to another player that is facing towards you. Easy to pass, easy to receive. Except that if you’re facing the goal, that means the receiving player is facing away from goal. That makes this pass useful, but difficult to create danger from. Robin Fraser likes square balls – they are high percentage, and force the defense to move around. Play a dozen accurate square balls in an attack, eventually perhaps the defense is moved enough to open a seam, and you play through it. It’s at low risk for a turnover, and allows you to keep your players in position in the event of a turnover.
“Hey, why do male soccer players wear black bras under their kits with that lump between their shoulder blades?” It’s because, like a 1995 Acura NSX, or ‘The Sopranos’ Big Pussy Bonpensiero, they’re wearing a tracking / recording device.
Yes, Sam Nicholson and Jonathan Lewis achieve these same effects as wingers too. However, to my eye, they much prefer to receive a short or medium pass and dribble off to the races than to latch onto a long pass. And with Lewis, well, if he’s going to dribble into the box, he’s almost always going to shoot it. That’s why Barrios is special. Once a player has the ball, all eyes are on him. The defense is committed to dealing with him. But Barrios creates mayhem with his runs even when he *doesn’t* have the ball; when they *don’t even* pass to him. Wizardry.
Barrios earned $680,000 in 2022; which is $29,000 over the individual player cap. The Rapids had to use TAM or GAM to pay down his salary. His contract for 2023 hasn’t been revealed yet, but conventional wisdom would tell me it’s in the $700-720K range.
Vicente Sanchez’ nickname was ‘The Wizard’.
And now he’s gone. Sad. I just reread this because next time he is back at the Richard it will as an opponent. Frown.