Backpass: Predictions are for fools. Like me.
There are a lot of things we just don’t understand, but we can conjecture about. Like, ‘what happened to the dark matter in the universe?’ And ‘why did saxophone solos go out of style in rock songs after the 1980s?’ We can throw stuff against the wall, but the answer is perhaps unascertainable.
Making sports predictions is different: you make ‘em, and as long as the season isn’t wrecked by a pandemic1, you might hit pay dirt on some of ‘em. Mostly, you’ll be embarrassingly wrong.
But being boldly stupid and completely wrong has never stopped me before, and it shant stop me now.
Prediction: The Rapids will not sell Sam Vines or Cole Bassett this season.
It’s a weird kind of pride to be hopeful that your team sells a player on to a larger European side. While we want the best homegrown players to stay here and help push the Colorado Rapids to winning their second-ever MLS Cup, we would also feel immense pride at turning on Paramount+ on a Wednesday afternoon and seeing Sam Vines float a pinpoint pass across the field while wear an Ajax, Fulham, or Benfica kit in a UEFA Champion’s League match. “I watched him in person here in Colorado” you’ll say, like your friend with the vinyl obsession who regularly brags “I saw Pearl Jam when they were still called Mookie Blaylock at club in Seattle with 11 people in it.” So we both *want* and *don’t want* Pádraig Smith and the FO to sell Cole and Sam.
I don’t think it happens this year. The market for players in Europe is still utterly chaotic due to the pandemic. Teams can’t figure out yet if they’ll have the gate revenue to support a wild buying spree on American talent. And although the players are more proven after a few years in MLS, a European team looking to save a few bucks can always go to South America, order up a couple Brazilians and Argentinians, and loan them out to the Swedish Allsvenskan or an English Championship side if they aren’t quite ready for prime time.
In addition, Bassett and Vines are in a funky position right now of being part of the recent land rush for American talent. In 2020, Reggie Cannon, Jordan Morris, Daryl Dike, Brenden Aaronson, Bryan Reynolds, Mark McKenzie, and Brandon Servania, all domestic US soccer products, moved abroad on loan or for significant transfer fees. Pretty much all of them came with a lot of hype - and for Dike and Cannon, it was immediately realized. That might put a little scrutiny on this next wave of players - 'are they young enough? How young? Are they raw? What’s their upside? Are we excited about their physical presence or their technical skills or their soccer IQ? Will they have the whole package?
Bassett and Vines are both additionally challenged by being guys at very specific positions, and positions that teams tend to give to reliable, sure-thing players. Vines is a left back - and teams really want someone proven at such a critical spot. Remember, in Europe, your left back is the last man to defend the opposing right wing or striker. In UCL, that’s literally going to be Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo or Mohamed Salah. Bassett is ideal as a midfield shuttler or an offense-minded center mid- but he’s not quite a 10, and he’s not quite a 6, and he probably lacks some of the skills of an 82, and he’s not blisteringly fast enough that you can push him out to the wing as a wide midfielder. He might get there this year, but teams in Europe probably would prefer a guy they can put on the field right now rather than a guy that still needs a bit more.
Moves in the Winter Offseason of 2021-2022 seems more likely to me.
Prediction: If you don’t know me by May 29… you will never, ever, ever know me.
Great song reference, cryptic prediction though. What I mean is this: we’ll know who this team is by where they stand on May 29, 2021.
The Rapids first eight games are against Dallas, Austin, Vancouver, Minnesota, Houston, LAFC, Dallas again, and Cincinnati. Collectively, they had a 44-58-32 (WLT) record in 2020. Houston and Vancouver were bad and missed the playoffs. LAFC had problems in defense and with depth, and missed Carlos Vela for long stretches of the season. Cincinnati were the worst team in the league. They were also the worst team in the league the year before. Austin are an expansion team, and I think they’ve built a ‘yay we’re here! we’ve got purdy kits and a cool stadium! winning? pffft’-type team (or, as we said on the podcast, they’re gonna be bad.)
Yes, these teams will all have addressed some of their issues. The FC Dallas academy seems as deep as the Gulf of Mexico, LAFC added two promising defenders to patch their cracks, and FCC dropped major coin on Brazilian playmaker Brenner. Nothing is static, and those notable improvements are likely to change some things for 2021.
Still, I think those teams are in the middlin’-to-pure-chum segment of the Western Conference. The big three from last year - SKC, Seattle, and Portland; collective WLT 34-17-15 - will stay on top, possibly joined by a rebounding LA Galaxy this season.3 Colorado faces SKC, SEA, and POR nine times in August, September, and October.
If Colorado go 3-3-2 or 3-4-1 in their opening frames of the season, well, it’s another year of mediocrity, of ‘barely missing the playoffs’ or ‘barely into the playoffs, maybe an exciting first round playoff surprise upset and second round departure.’ On the other hand, if they take five wins in these games, then the Rapids are for real again this year, and a top-three finish and Conference-final run are real possibilities for us.
Prediction: Another year of scoring by committee, nobody in double digits.
This feels like less of a prediction and more of a lament. I dunno if the theory in Colorado is ‘goal scorers are over-rated’ or ‘listen, it’d be nice to drop coin on a fancy striker, but this is Kroenke-ball, son.’ But the Rapids have had just three players that scored in double-digits in the past decade : Deshorn Brown in 2013, and Kei Kamara and Diego Rubio in 2018.
The Rapids forward corps of Jonathan Lewis (5 goals), Andre Shinyashiki (4 goals) and Diego Rubio (3 goals), were solid but not spectacular in 2020. I thought Shinya was poised to dominate last year, but it felt like defending players around the league figured him out, and he lacked the multi-dimensionality that would allow him to adapt and thrive. I very much want to be proved wrong here: Dre seems like a guy that, somehow, some way,4 has a 15 goal season in him. But logically, the progression for that would go ‘7 goal rookie season’ —> ‘10 goal 2nd year’ —> ‘15 in year three.’ Shinyashiki got only 4 goals in 2020 in 1092 minutes. His numbers closely mimic what Expected Goals … expected him to score: 6.87 xG in 2019, 3.21 in 2020. If the Rapids hadn’t had a truncated year due to Covid, Shinyashiki likely gets 1800 minutes, and 7 goals again. Which is good! But not ‘guaranteed starter’ good. His Goals Added number, a measure of his overall contributions as a player, was -0.02 per 96 according to American Soccer Analysis, or just slightly below-average amongst all MLS wingers and strikers.
It can still happen for Andre. If he gets a chance at center forward over Rubio5 with Barrios on the left and Namli on the right, and can get going early, he can be the new hot topic for Rapids fans to discuss at 1876 or the British Bulldog over beers. If he can’t get some production early at striker or LW, though, he’ll force Robin Fraser to search for the solution with Rubio, Nicolas Benezet, or Darren Yapi. And that could work! But it’d mean the Rapids give 1000 minutes to each CF, and they each get at best 7 goals a piece.
Predictions: No more plagues.
In 2019, it was Bubonic Prairie Dog Plague. In 2020 it was Covid-19.
It’s enough, dammit.
Am I predicting? Am I pleading with the universe to take it easy on us? Whatever it is we did, we are sorry. We will not forsake the beautiful game or complain about a lack of signings or hog all of the oven-grilled C38 tailgate pizza to ourselves - whatever we may have done to bring this upon ourselves, we are sorry.6 If it would appease the deity, we would gladly build a bonfire, build a bonfire, and put Salt Lake on top as an offering.
This year, yes, we may still need to wear masks and social distance, but I predict (he said, projecting positivity into the universe in hopes that the good vibes will eradicate the foul spirits) we will have health, and mirth, and beer, and soccer this season in great abundance.
I mean, did anything that we predicted on the podcast a year ago make sense after Covid? Sort of?
“10” - shorthand for a creative, forward midfielder who dribbles and passes to create offense. “6” - shorthand for a defensive midfielder; tough in the tackle, a defensive shield, and a pivot/recirculation player that can pass and direct the offense when needed. “8” - the so-called box-to-box midfielder that can do it all - attack, defense, pass and link up play, shoot and pop up with late runs into the box. The numbers correspond to the way they were often assigned numbers based on those positions in English football back in the day.
So, this is probably dumb and wrong, but somehow I think LA will get a rebound from Chicharito and become more multi-faceted without Christian Pavón. New signing Samuel Grandsir comes in at winger and wrecks shit. Efrain Gonzalez takes that next step forward. Greg Vanney gets ‘em clicking. Again, I think I overestimate the Gals every year though, so do not take this to Vegas.
‘somehow, some way keep comin' up with funky ass shit like every single day’. I know that’s actually a Snoop line, but Dre. Snoop. There’s a clear link here people.
I think I’m kind of talked out about Rubio after ‘The Great Diego Rubio Debate’ with Matt. Suffice it to say, I think he’s best as 70th minute relief, and will never be a 10+ starting goal scorer in MLS.
This is intended as humor. I am literally a rabbi, and therefore could bore the snot out of you all with a nuanced theological discourse on theodicy (‘why bad things happen to good people’) and why it wasn’t because you took the Lord’s name in vain last week.