Backpass: Power ranking the Western Conference offseason moves

Still some moves to make. But I figure my predictions won't be accurate, so at least I'll make them early.

Offseasons are always a little weird. In the moves of players, there’s always a strange and uneven balance with a team - a push-pull where there seems to be too many, or too few, players to do the job¹ until the roster deadline hits.

You start with the cuts, leaving your locker room in early-January looking a little empty.

Fans think ‘should I worry? Does the ballclub need me to come to open tryouts next week?’ (In the USL, the answer is usually ‘yes’, but assumes that the triallees are cool making $11.50 an hour.)

And then, usually by MLS opening day, you see the plan come together. But still, late additions can roll in. While the European transfer window closes on January 31, the transfer window in Argentina and Brazil is open till February 23 and April 12, respectively. And MLS teams can add players all the way until May 1. Transfer windows actually only apply to adding players - a team can subtract a player via sale or contract cancellation at any time they want. It’s just that, well, if a team can’t add any players, it’s unlikely they’re going to subtract any significant players.

The 2022 MLS winter offseason has been a little different than in past years. Whereas in previous years we’ve had teams like NYCFC, LAFC, LA Galaxy, DC United and Inter Miami buying big name veteran European stars (that’d be David Villa and Frank Lampard, Carlos Vela, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Wayne Rooney, and Gonzalo Higuain, if you’re scoring at home), this year the flow of players is going in the other direction. Cole Bassett is in Belgium; Ricardo Pepi and Justin Che just went to Germany; Matt Turner is off to Arsenal. James Sand, Darryl Dike, and George Bello - gone, gone, gone.

MLS has evolved. The league is now officially a selling league. We train ‘em, or we find ‘em in Argentina or Brazil, and if we can make a buck on ‘em, we’re selling.

That significantly changes how the offseason flow works. The departures used to be minor, and the imports, sometimes arriving mid-summer (Zlatan, Tim Howard, etc.), were major. Now the players leaving are a big deal, and the question most teams ask is - does the academy or the scouting team have what we need to restock the shelves? A big answer to this question for the Rapids comes when my man Matt Pollard drops his interview next week with Rapids ace scout, Chris Zitterbart.

For now, let’s take stock of the Western Conference moves as of 1:56pm on January 31. More moves will be coming, for sure, but with the season less than a month away, most teams at this point are 95-99 percent assembled.

This list is exactly what it purports to be: a list of whether a team has improved or regressed over the offseason. I make a prediction of where teams will be at the end, but it’s really just for shits and giggles, so that you all can mock my epic failure in 9 more months. Mostly, though, I’m thinking about whether teams get better or worse based on signings or departures.

Younger players mature and blossom. Older players wilt. MLS vets have career years. Dependable players crater. Ref made bad calls. A gust of wind blows a ball ticketed for the top corner <doink!> off the crossbar. There are a million things that can make a formerly good team bad, or a bad team surprisingly good. This list is still a pretty decent way to calibrate what to expect, right now, of the 2022 Western Conference.

Colorado Rapids

Key additions: Max Alves, Bryan Acosta; Key Subtractions: Cole Bassett, Kellyn Acosta;

Overall: ⇩

Effectively, the Rapids and LAFC have swapped midfielders this year, trading Kellyn Acosta for Mark-Anthony Kaye, although from the twitter drama, it’s obvious that the Rapids didn’t plan to move Kellyn Acosta at all. Acosta and his agent thought there was interest abroad for his services - a claim the Rapids refute. That certainly led Acosta to believe he deserved a bigger contract, and created bad blood with the Commerce City front office. Colorado held a club option on the player which they exercised for 2022, but once things broke down with Kellyn for an extension, he made it clear he wanted to move on entirely from the Rapids.

Personally, I think this swap is a wash. Both are capable defenders, good in possession, OK at progressive passing, and average or below in the final third with assists and shooting. They both do what a good number eight does, and if you don’t have that guy, your team has problems. Both Acosta and Kaye are critical players for their national teams, but neither will ever make an MLS All-Star squad.

Cole Bassett is a bigger loss for the team. He’s a crafty East-West dribbler and great late-arriving box-to-box threat. Yes, the Rapids new addition Max might offset that loss. But 1) we don’t really know that yet and 2) he’s going to need a minimum of six months to adjust to MLS.

The Rapids are a tiny bit worse to start 2022. Considering they won the west last year, that’s ok by me.

Seattle Sounders

Key additions: Albert Rusnak , Obed Vargas; Key Subtractions: Brad Smith, Shane O’Neill;

Overall: ⇧

Seattle’s front four in 2022 will be Raul Ruidiaz, Albert Rusnak, Nico Lodeiro, and Jordan Morris. Thaaaaaaat’s insane. All four of those players have *multiple* double-digit goal seasons in MLS. By comparison, the Rapids have only once had two double digit scorers on the roster in a season - 2010 (Conor Casey and Omar Cummings). And I didn’t even mention possibly Seattle’s best player, central midfielder Joao Paulo, who was an MLS MVP finalist in 2021.

I do have concerns about whether Seattle can turn over the left back spot to Nouhou Tolo without worry. But that’s exceedingly minor. Really, I expect this to be one of the best Seattle teams in their history.

Sporting Kansas City

Key additions: Logan Ndenbe; Key Subtractions: Ilie Sanchez;

Overall: ↔

SKC added 21-year-old Belgian youth international Logan Ndenbe, and that’s about it. As we witnessed in the Rapids pre-season match against Sporting on Saturday, they’ll probably be fine. This is a strong team overall. It does have a few players on the wrong side of thirty, though: Graham Zusi is 34, Tim Melia is 34, Roger Espinoza is 34, Andreu Fontas is 31, and Johnny Russell is 30. All were regular starters in 2021. So SKC look strong for another run at a conference championship, as long as no one gets hurt.

Portland Timbers

Key additions: Tega Ikoba, David Bingham; Key Subtractions: Aljaž Ivačič, Steve Clark, Diego Valeri

Overall: ↔

I’ll really miss Diego Valeri, who was so much fun to watch for so many years. But the Timbers are now the team of the brothers Chara - Yimmi and Diego. I don’t think this team is that great? But they found a way to get fourth last year, so what do I know?

Portland’s only significant move of the offseason was to shed keeper Steve Clark, whose -2.58 G-xG² for the 2021 season was 7th in the league, and pick up former Galaxy netminder David Bingham, who didn’t play at all in 2021 and who last recorded a +5.74 G-xG in 2020, last in the league among keepers. It looks likely that Slovenian signing Aljaž Ivačič is the presumptive starter, although USL signing Justin Vom Steeg might also push him, as well as Logan Ketterer.

I also don’t know how good of a prospect homegrown signing Tega Ikoba is, but the 18 year-old scored 6 goals for UNC in his freshman year last season before turning pro. Portland’s academy hasn’t really produced any notable players to date. Maybe Ikoba will be the first.

Minnesota United FC

Key additions: Bongokuhle Hlongwane; Key Subtractions: Ozzie Alonso, Jan Gregus, Thomas Chacon

Overall: ⇩

Seattle moved on from Ozzie Alonso because they figured he was over the hill. Then Minnesota scooped him up and thought - there’s still meat on that bone. And according to his Goals Added (G+), MNUFC was right. In 2018, Ozzie had a G+ of +1.48 with the Sounders. In 2019, he had a +0.41 for them. With Minnesota in 2020 in a Covid-shortened season, Alonso still had a positive G+ of +0.32. And in 2021 with the Loons, Ozzie produced +0.47 G+ in 1577 minutes of action.

Minnesota decided to move on from the 36-year-old, which is fine, except there isn’t really a convincing replacement for him. They also are moving on from Jan Gregus, who was mediocre in 859 minutes at d-mid alongside Alonso in 2021, and Ethan Finlay, who was bad in 1879 minutes, and young DP Thomás Chacón, who Adrian Heath never played at all for some reason. The Loons brought in 21-year-old South African striker Bongokuhle Hlongwane, much to the consternation of sports writers and local sports anchors across the Minneapolis-St. Paul area who have to pronounce and/or spell Bongokuhle Hlongwan.³

Minnesota has no academy to speak of, so clearly the team still has a few moves up their sleeves before the start of the season to fill out the roster. Still, as it stands, this team is as ready to start up as your neighbor’s 1974 Chrysler LeBaron that’s been sitting on the back driveway under a tarp for the past eight years.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC

Key additions: Tristan Blackmon; Key Subtractions: Maxime Crépeau, Janio Bikel

Overall: ⇩

I have no idea how Vancouver pulled sixth place with a lineup as anonymous as this. They came out of nowhere with Russell Teibert, Cristián Dajom, Deiber Caicedo and Brian White and got the job done. Goalkeeper Maxime Crépeau’s -4.61 G-xG was fourth best in the league last year. I guess maybe we need to start talking about them with more respect.

Vancouver figure they can do it again, without Crépeau. They sold him for a cool million in Garber Bucks to LAFC.⁴ Maybe that means the starting job falls to 21 year old Canadian Thomas Hasal? I kind of doubt it: his raw numbers - a Goals Against of 2.00, Save percentage of just 61.8 pct - do not inspire confidence. I think they’re soon to announce a move for a new player that utilizes some of that new cash. Will that move - an added field player, presumably - compensate for the loss one of the leagues best keepers? I’m doubtful.

Tristan Blackmon was a serviceable fullback for an LAFC team that really struggled. I don’t really know if he’s much of an upgrade for VWFC.

Real Salt Lake

Key additions: Jaziel Orozco, Axel Kei, Julio Benitez, Jude Wellings; Key Subtractions: Albert Rusnak, Donny Toia, Douglas Martinez

Overall: ⇩

Every year there’s an MLS team that’s hard to predict. Last year, it was Austin, who some thought had built a really solid starting foundation, and others thought ‘expansion team: last, second to last, or third to last are the only options here.’ Real Salt Lake is this year’s wild card.

You can simply look at them and say ‘no Rusnak, no party,’ and pencil them in for 10th, and that’d be a reasonable way to go. It seems they’re letting the 2022 season all ride on their academy. Axel Kei will get all the ink because he is the youngest signing in MLS history - younger even than Freddie Adu⁵, but I can’t tell you which of Kei, Jaziel Orozco, Julio Benitez, or Jude Wellings will contribute the most. In fact, it might be some of their second or third year homegrowns not listed above that’ll make the biggest impact, and Salt Lake have a lot of those guys. Fully 15 players on their roster right now are homegrowns. That’s insane.

If those guys are ready to step forward, RSL could have a monster year. If the academy is actually pretty thin and promoting the kids is just a necessary stop-gap for a cash strapped team, though, this could be a bad, bad year for our rivals to the north.

LA Galaxy

Key additions: Douglas Costa, Kelvin Leerdam, Marky Delgado; Key Subtractions: Jonathan Dos Santos, Sebastian Lletget, Daniel Steres, Nico Hamalainen

Overall: ⇩

The LA Galaxy’s bombshell signing for the offseason is DP Douglas Costa, a 31-year old Brazilian winger on loan to Gremio in the Italian second division, where he has 2 goals in 23 appearances. He’ll line up next to Chicharito and Kevin Cabral in an-all DP front three. The thing is, after that star-powered front line, I’m not sure the Galaxy have much in the way of support.

Sebastian Lletget was not good last year, so his departure might be addition by subtraction. But Jona Dos Santos was the last outstanding player on a formerly outstanding team, and now he’s gone, with no one to truly fill his shoes. Is this midfield really going to start 2022 with Marky Delgado, Victor Vásquez, and Sacha Kljestan? Is this 2017? Or are they turning things over to the kids, Efrain Gonzalez and Rayan Ravelosen? And are those guys really good enough?

It feels like flash over substance for the Gals. And another year adrift and out of the playoffs.

LAFC

Key Additions: Ismael Tajouri-Shradi, Maxime Crépeau, Kellyn Acosta; Key Subtractions: Eduard Atuesta, Tristan Blackmon

Overall: ↔

Eduard Atuesta is a big loss for the black and gold, but I’m a big fan of Tajouri-Shradi in attack, so that’s a wash, and Maxime Crépeau finally solves LA’s GK situation - one that hasn’t been good since they got rid of Tyler Miller several years ago.

But really, the story with this team is mostly about their new head coach, Steve Cherundolo, and whether he can step into Bob Bradley’s huge shoes and make LAFC competitive again. In year one, with this lineup? I don’t think so.

San Jose Earthquakes

Key Additions: Jan Gregus, Nico Tsakiris; Key Subtractions: Oswaldo Alanis

Overall: ⇧

Here’s Jan Gregus over the last three years by G+:

So: very good. Then simply good. Then under-used and slightly below-average.

I like Gregus a lot - he’s my Slovakian Micheal Azira. Covers ground, cuts lanes, maybe even a better distributer than Mikey ever was. And I think that the 31-year-old perhaps he can get back to where he was in 2019.

Is his addition enough to make SJ a playoff team? Probably not. But I think the growth of a few homegrowns and maybe one more signing could get San Jose in spitting distance.

FC Dallas

Key Additions: Paul Arriola, Nanu, [Paxton Pomykal]; Key Subtractions: Ricardo Pepi, Justin Che, Bryan Acosta

Overall: ↔

Winger Paul Arriola is a fantastic addition for Dallas - a smart, seasoned attacker for a team that’s been long on talented youngsters in need of leadership. But of course, Dallas has sold some of that talent - in addition to losing Pepi and Che, they sold Tanner Tessman mid-2021 to Venezia. Is there more there? Paxton Pomykal should be all the way back from injury, and Brandon Servania and Jesus Ferreira are here. And they added 27-year-old wingback Nanu on loan from Porto to round things out.

Talentwise, they’re slightly worse without Pepi, even with the addition of Arriola. But I think the end result for Dallas in 2022 will be a big improvement.

Austin FC

Key Additions: Jhojan Valencia, Maxi Urruti, Ethan Finlay; Key Subtractions: Tomas Pochettino

Overall: ↔

Feels like the plan for 2022 in Austin is ‘last year’s struggles were just new-team jitters. We’ll gel in year two, add some veterans, and take the league by storm.’

OK, about that plan. Maxi Urruti is old as dirt, so I wouldn’t expect too much from him. And Ethan Finlay’s -2.59 G+ was 9th-worst in the entire league. Neither of these vets seems like ‘a solution’ so much as ‘let’s bring in some over-the-hill free agent league guys because that’s what GMs do when they’re short on ideas.’ Maybe Deportivo Cali midfielder Jhojan Valencia is the secret weapon?

Look for marginal improvement in Austin and continued strong merchandise sales. Also, I have a lot of unused frequent flyer miles and a love of tacos, so perhaps the rabbi makes a trip to Austin this summer.

Houston Dynamo

Key Additions: Sebastián Ferreira, Daniel Steres, Steve Clark; Key Subtractions: Maynor Figueroa, Boniek Garcia

Overall: ⇧

New head coach Pablo Nagamura is going to have to hope that the Paraguayan first division is reasonably comparable to MLS, although I have a suspicion it’s not. New striker Sebastián Ferreira is going to carry a lot of expectation on his shoulders. I like the addition of Daniel Steres - he’s a solid, workmanlike centerback, as long as you don’t need him to be your out of the back distributor or make dead-run open field tackles on the opponents fastest player.

Houston will be better in 2022, but considering their dead-last finish in 2021, there is literally nowhere to go but up. The moral victory for 2022 will be in being the best of the three bad Texas teams - an achievable goal in my opinion.

Rabbi’s Pick for end-of-season Western Conference table:

1 ) Seattle

2 ) SKC

3 ) Dallas

4 ) Colorado

5 ) Portland

6 ) Salt Lake

7 ) San Jose

8 ) Minnesota

9 ) LAFC

10 ) LA Galaxy

11 ) Vancouver

12 ) Houston

13 ) Austin

…

Thank you to a few new paid subscribers we pulled the other day - the management appreciates it. Sorry to all you Highliners for my not turning in a post the past two weeks: I had Covid, and also, there was literally nothing to write about.

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1. Arsenal right now have Pierre Emerick Aubameyang in limbo, a few seasons after having Mesut Ozil in limbo - both serving as high-priced extraneous players on a team that can’t use them, can’t get rid of them. It happens less frequently in MLS. But then there’s Giovani Dos Santos, and Yura Movsisyan, and whatever the hell was going on at Inter Miami last year with 4 DPs for 3 slots.

2. A negative G-xG is good for goalkeepers. +0.0 means your GK stopped all the shots the algorithms expected him to, and none of the shots it didn’t. A negative number means he saved shots at an above-expected rate; a positive number means he let in some goals that the average keeper stops.

Shot stopping is only one part of being a GK - distribution, collection, organizing defenders are all also important skills. But Steve Clark is (was) good for the Timbers, and now we’ll just see if David Bingham will be a suitable replacement.

3. I suspect he has the longest non-hypenated name in MLS, although I have no way to check this.

4. That cash is spread over four to five years in $250K increments, so Vancouver probably aren’t about to go nuts for a big transfer with this money.

5. When writing ‘Freddie Adu’, I feel a strong urge to spit three times, throw salt, and say a Yiddish curse.