Backpass: Mark-Anthony Kaye, Habitual Line Stepper
The Rapids made two moves this week. They're good moves. But not what I might have expected or dreamt of.
As Colorado starts to power through the middle of the 2021 season, winning the expected wins over struggling teams like Dallas and then committing a bone-headed own goal error that sunk their chances on the road to RSL, the ultimate possibility of what we can achieve in 2021 is becoming clear. We look good; not great. Strong; not unbeatable. And thus, unlike in other years1, the Rapids enter August with the possibility of post-season glory still within their reach. And so there’s no fire sale of unneeded assets or dull standing-pat as we have seen in the past. Instead, we get … moves!
Tom Bogert reported the big one earlier this week, and Matt Pollard and I of course had opinions.
(Audio Note: Matt has decided to refer repeatedly to Mark-Anthony Kaye, both verbally and in writing, as MAK. I do not condone or endorse this behavior.)
The MLS punditocracy has overwhelming concluded that this was a good move. Simply put, the draft pick and the international slot Colorado sent to LAFC are mostly immaterial - it’s likely to be a pick in the range of the 20th to 32nd pick, and these are players that rarely ever become big time stars, let along useful cogs2. The international slot, I will assume, would have been sold anyway, so better they get a player they want with it rather than cash that might buy a good player, or not. $1 million in GAM when you probably have already been hoarding it all season all are likely to rake in $2 million more on the sale of Sam Vines is also no big deal, especially if you are getting a prime midfielder that will produce for you.
But of course, that’s the question. Is Kaye in his prime, and productive? Kaye was exceptional for LAFC in 2019, and not so much since then.
When Kaye is good, as he was in 2019, he does a lot of everything well. You see his Interrupting, Passing, and Receiving G+ are all quite high. These numbers are all normalized to zero, so any positive number is ‘above average’. For men of a certain age, we now must make a requisite Garrison Keillor ‘Prairie Home Companion’ reference. That also met the eye-test to the games I watched of them - Kaye was an extremely good two-way midfielder, in ways similar to Kellyn Acosta, but in ways that might complement Acosta or even allow him to grow as a player.
Kaye had an exceptional 2019 year - but then again, all of LAFC had an exceptional year. They won Supporters Shield with 72 points - a record-setting number - but were disappointed to lose in the Western Conference final to Seattle Sounders. Carlos Vela was MVP, scoring an outrageous 38 goals in 36 matches. Eduard Atuesta led the midfield with 5.58 G+, and midfield harasser-dribbler Latif Blessif had a 3.87 G+, same as Kaye. The 2019 team pressed well, cut passing lanes extremely well, and moved the ball extremely quickly and accurately. Kaye was often a primary ‘lane-jumper’, or perhaps in the words of the dearly departed Charlie Murphy, a habitual line-stepper.
In 2020 and 2021, LAFC had some changes along the backline, and Vela missed some time, and some of the strikers left, and they changed goalkeepers, and people got older, and they’ve been less exceptional. Kaye, as the numbers indicate, has been a lot less exceptional lately. What the Rapids will find out quickly is - is he simply out of favor with Bob Bradley? Did LAFC just decide 22-year-old Ecuadorian José Cifuentes is the future, relegating Kaye to a spare part? 3
Or there a real reason to Kaye’s decline? Perhaps Kaye’s exceptional 2019 year was the result of an excellent system, or an excellent team, producing a great overall effect - the proverbial rising tide that lifts all ships.
I think Mark-Anthony Kaye is a really good player. I think he will likely fit into the Rapids and make them better. But… he wasn’t what I expected if the team was going to make a move. He doesn’t address the main weaknesses of this team in terms of final-third distribution or scoring. I think maybe the Rapids know that buying a player at attacking mid or striker would be extremely expensive; and if we know anything from the Yannick Boli 4debacle, it’s that you have to overpay at striker and the results may not be even satisfactory. Colorado may be trying something different - if they can’t buy an elite striker or a DP playmaker, they’ll build an exceptional midfield and run a system that accentuates that advantage.
A midfield three of Kaye, Acosta, and Price5 will be exceptional in defense, transition, and medium-long passing. Perhaps you don’t need as to be quite as deadly in front of goal if you produce more chances. I like Kaye. This is a good move. I’m certainly not ‘we’re gonna win the league!’ excited though.
…
Now’s a good time to ask yourself - do I have enough t-shirts? The answer, of course, is no.
T-shirts wear out. The color fades. The edges fray. The neck gets misshapen. You really need a new one. Why not get a t-shirt that expresses your values - you love of soccer, love of the Rapids, love of this substack, and love of helping kids play soccer? Oh, would that there were a cool looking t-shirt that did all this.
There is. Order the HTHL ‘In Mike We Trust’ t-shirt now, and you get a cool comfy Hanes t-shirt that helps our podcast and also supports youth education and soccer in Uganda.
…
I think I’ve Written the Headline ‘Meh’ too often. However.
The Rapids other move this week was in re-acquiring Dominique Badji, which they did yesterday. Badji was drafted by the Rapids in 2015, and spent from 2018 to mid-2021 with FC Dallas and Nashville SC. He cost $50,000 in GAM, which is the MLS equivalent of pocket change.
Some people I really like on twitter hailed this as a great move. Badji is fast and big and strong, and he’s shown throughout his career that he can be useful in holdup play and with winning aerials. But really, he’s not a consequential signing, and my expectations of him are barely north of zero. Here’s why:
Badji has not been significantly productive since 2018, the year the Rapids sent him on to Dallas … and has just one year in which he produced goals at or above the rate that xG would predict. In 2016, he had a +0.96 G-xG; meaning big data would indicate he ought to have scored 5.04 goals that year, but he scored 6. Other than that, he’s scored at below what you would hope for. I mean, sure, he was pretty handy in 2017 when he scored 9 goals, but look at that monster number of minutes played. The question that likely went through the Front Office’s mind at the end of that year was, ‘hey, if we gave anybody else 2729 minutes - Jack Bean or Kei Kamara or a top-5 USL striker - wouldn’t they also score 9 goals?’ And thus, Badji was deemed expendable, and he was, uh, expended in the deal that acquired Kellyn Acosta.
A legitimate second question with Badji is ‘is he going to fit into what Robin Fraser is doing?’ Fraser, unlike Hudson and Mastroeni before him, doesn’t need a lot of holdup play and back-to-goal facilitation from his striker. Diego Rubio has been a ‘face-up’ attacker - he makes runs or creates triangles with the wingers or dribbles and dishes the ball backwards in the box to Cole Bassett or Michael Barrios. That’s never really been Badji’s scoring game. He’s great at blowing past a man in the open field with speed, or maybe bodying up his opponent to win a header, but I don’t know if those are qualities essential to this offense.
Listen, for $50K, 10 minutes of Badji at the end of regulation to preserve a win is fine. But even the pessimists out there think Badji is good for two to four goals this year. He’s a useful cog. He’s injury insurance. He’ll relieve a tired Barrios on the wing and make the opposing fullbacks run a bit more. But if the Vegas over-under on goals the rest of the way for Badji was 2 … I would absolutely take the under.6
The Rapids missed the playoffs - and were often well out of contention by mid-August or earlier - in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. That’s actually ‘most years’ of the past decade. Maybe I should have written ‘most years.’ Is that too harsh? I dunno. It’s best I just leave it.
In 2014 they probably *could* have made the playoffs if they hadn’t gone winless for 14 games straight. Were you a fan back then? If you are, then you and I are friends for life, fam. Siblings in Sufferin’.
Back in the day, though, hooo boy! In the 2005 Superdraft Bobby Boswell, Jeff Laretowicz, and Chris Wondolowski all went *undrafted*. Good players can be had late, but it’s a lot harder now.
Odds are they want to spend some cash on a big signing, while the Rapids have become risk-averse to overpaying for experienced overseas players. Jack Price worked out for them. Kevin Doyle and Joe Mason and Lucas Pittinari and Luis Solignac and and and … not so much. We’re still waiting to see if Younes Namli is worth his price tag. The Rapids plan for building going forward is probably to do things domestically and affordably, with only the occasional big Euro-spend.
Are we at the point where I need to post a link to who Boli was? It was 2018. It feels like yesterday. But if you’re new to Rapids fandom, you might not know who he was. Yannick Boli was paid just under a million dollars in 2018… to score 2 goals. I think one was a PK. So we learned from him that expensive strikers from Europe can also be trash. Gonzalo Higuain is currently educating Inter Miami of this fact in a similar manner.
What does this mean for Cole Bassett? I really don’t know. He’s been the best scorer out of the midfield, but he’s also had some clunker games this season. If the team wants to put out their best XI, then Bassett should start in the midfield and the formation should be a 4-4-2 of some kind. But then Michael Barrios isn’t really a striker and neither is Jonathan Lewis? See, this is why getting a striker would have been nice. I wouldn’t have these problems to deal with.
My advice in general: put your money in a nice safe mutual fund. Or give it to charity. Or buy yourself a new kit. Then at least you (or a person in need) will actually have something in the end. Sports gambling is generally not a great idea. DraftBetPaddyKingsMGMCorporateBallysHardRockSportsCasino.com has slick expensive commercials and gorgeous buildings in Vegas and Macao because literally millions of schlubs like you and me thought ‘it’s a sure thing!’, and it wasn’t. For my money, if I’m going to blow some coin quickly, I prefer to do it on Ms. Pacman.