Backpass: Back to almost-normal
Fans in the stands mean is a sign of something bigger for all of us. Also, should the Rapids sign Jozy Altidore?
*Types ‘gmail.com’.*
*‘Enter’*
*Reads first email at the top of the stack (53 new unread messages; not that bad.)*
Inbox: “DICK’S Sporting Goods Park to Operate at Full Capacity Starting July 4”
*Breathes a sigh of 75% relief.*
Nobody’s going to tell you the pandemic’s over. The CDC guidelines express the sentiment of ‘Go back to normal! Sort of! Except in the following dozen cases!’ We’re still seeing new cases of Covid. The news in other countries with lower vaccination rates is still not good. I’m still wearing a mask a lot - because I have kids under 12 that are unvaccinated, and I have to set a good example.
But last week, like a lot of Rapids fans two weeks ago, I was at a soccer match. With fans. The supporters group was back for the first time in 18 months. Beer was drunk. Fans were drunk. Songs were sung. Balls were struck, but instead of the *thunk* - *eerie silence* - *yelling of a couple players in an echo-y stadium*, saves were met with thunderous applause. Misses had that resounding ‘ohhhhh!’ sound. A filthy move by a midfielder was met with hoots and hollers. And that was with a 44% of capacity crowd as mandated by local law. I cannot even begin to imagine what a full-on sellout would have sounded like.
I’ve had kind of a busy and stressful day, and sometimes that messes with my emotional equilibrium, so forgive me if I have ‘the feels’ a bit too much today - that I’m a bit dramatic or squishy. But it feels like we’re back to ‘almost normal.’
Matt and I started processing the pandemic through the prism of soccer on the podcast way back at the beginning. Most of our conversations were of two ilks - ‘can you believe this craziness? The entire universe has shut down!’ or ‘sports are coming back - does this plan make any sense?’
Sportswriting is a low risk profession about things that are generally, in the grand scheme of things, inconsequential. We blather and opine about a ball bouncing into a net. But it is, of course, our microcosm of the universe that allows us to process something in a small, specific, and relatable way. The Rapids losing to 2-0 to RSL isn’t really that notable - we’ve done that a lot over the years, unfortunately. (The overall series record stands currently at 17-11-24 (WTL) for Colorado against Salt Lake.) But the fact that the last 2-0 loss took place in an empty stadium in Orlando; that ESPN attempted to cover over the stands with digital ads; that fans uploading video of themselves on Zoom had to suffice for actual engagement with the players; that Fox Sports piped in fake crowd noise and generic Euro chants like this was a modern incarnation of a mid-grade 1960s sitcom that utilized a laugh track instead of actual human interaction; all of that was different.
We understood the changes to our reality by refracting it through football. The game was the same, but everything around it was different. And so life was different.
There was also the deadly seriousness of it all. Two entire MLS team were removed from the tournament, because the virus had felled most of the roster and the coaching staff. Over the time that the MLS is Back tournament was played, July 8 to August 11, around 2,000,000 people in the US got Covid-19. Around 25,000 Americans over that time span died of the disease.1 The tournament was ‘soccers triumphant return’. It was a 90-minute escape from reality. But also, it wasn’t. The soccer I watched on Saturday didn’t fully distract me from the funeral I had performed on Thursday.2
A lot of us are waiting for the pandemic to ‘be over’. For somebody to stride to a podium with a ‘mission accomplished’ banner behind them and declare that things are back to normal, and that nobody will ever die of an emerging infectious disease again. I gotta be honest: I don’t think that’s ever going to happen. Covid is with us now. And the next time Avian flu or SARS or another coronavirus variant pops up, we will react differently and with more caution - because we’ll be rightfully afraid of under-reacting - even if the new illness turns out to be mostly benign.
For me, I’m satisfied that the pandemic is what I call ‘75% over.’ I’m vaccinated. I went to a soccer game with a live crowd. And the Rapids declared that on July 4, the fireworks game where everyone comes down on the pitch and feels the perfectly manicured grass and gazes at the sky with awe, things will be back to normal. Let us take a moment to appreciate that.
…
Jozy to Colorado?
Apparently, USMNT striker and 2-time MLS champion Jozy Altidore is in a spat with Toronto FC manager Chris Armas.
It could be nothing. But also, it could result in the 31 year-old Designated Player forcing a trade or sale out of Toronto. Altidore has a contract that runs through 2022 that pays him a guaranteed $3.6 million this year.
Would it be worth it for Colorado to make a move for him? First, let’s ask the right questions here, and eliminate the wrong ones. The first ‘wrong one’ is: ‘is he worth it?’ You can put a price on the value of a goal, or whether a striker’s salary in relation to the goals she or he scores is higher or lower than commensurate players. However, in a capped league with the DP rule, when your team has two open DP slots and plenty of money under the cap for signings, the ‘is he worth it?’ question is actually not that important or valid. Colorado can afford him, no doubt. And his salary would come off the books in just 18 months. Even if he under performs, that’s literally just money that other teams in the league are paying to compete that the Rapids refuse to pay.
The right questions here are ‘will Jozy be productive in Robin Fraser’s system?’; ‘will Jozy come with a good attitude?’; and ‘is Jozy an upgrade on who we’ve got at striker right now - enough to warrant making a move?’
My magic eight ball is in the shop, so I really can’t speak to the first two questions with certainty. Suffice it to say Jozy has a history of being temperamental, and also injury-prone, and at 31 years old, he’s no spring chicken. However, attitude-wise, he’s also no Dennis Rodman. He has occasional drama and he speaks his mind, but overall he’s a well-liked and respected player who has earned the right to be outspoken. And let’s remember: the volatile Rodman, with all the chaos that he brought, was also an essential part of the Bulls dominance. Rodman won seven NBA rebounding titles and helped the Bulls win three consecutive NBA championships. A good team can handle a little attitude if the player brings the talent, too.
That third question, we can answer. Below are Jozy’s numbers for Goals Added (G+) and Expected Goals (xG)3 for his MLS career, alongside the numbers for the current Rapids striker, Diego Rubio. First, G+. (Sorry if it’s small. Don’t forget you can use the zoom on your browser if you like.)
If you just want to ponder whether Rapids striker Diego Rubio is simply good or not, go here and listen to Matt and I debate it on the pod. We’re interested in asking the more specific question: ‘is Jozy Altidore likely to be an upgrade on Diego Rubio?’
First off, we have to ignore the data from 2021 because the sample size is too small. Second, we ought to think that recent results are probably more important to Jozy, who is advancing in age past his prime, vs. Rubio, who at 28 years old is just starting to slide past his peak years.
In his best years, Jozy was better than Rubio: with a 1.30 G+ in 2017 and a 1.51 G+ in 2019. Rubio had a 1.08 G+ in 2019. Looking at the detailed numbers, you notice Jozy’s Receiving G+ is always positive, while Rubio’s is always negative - Jozy’s got a better first touch. Rubio’s Interrupting G+ is better than Jozy’s - he presses and forces turnovers better; he’s a better defender. Rubio’s a better dribbler, but not by a lot.
Perhaps most important to this conversation, the respective overall G+ number in 2020 for both of them is pretty meh: -0.36 Overall G+ for Altidore, -1.04 G+ for Rubio. If we just assume they will replicate their results from last season, we learn that Jozy would be an overall upgrade over Rubio, and thus a person might argue we ought to go get him. Except, he’d still be a below-average MLS striker on a $3.6 million contract. Eek.
Let us continue by adding some more numbers to the mix.
Here’s the xG numbers for the two of them, which tells you a lot about an important number for strikers: finishing.
As you see from G-xG, Jozy has outperformed expectation every year *except* 2020 - while Rubio has only significantly exceeded the average twice in his career. If you slide over to the xG +xA (xA is Expected Assists), you see Jozy’s numbers are eye-poppingly good … except for last year. There were injuries. There was Covid. TFC had to play away from Toronto the whole year. There are mitigating factors.
However, when you put all the numbers all together regarding both Altidore and Rubio, you get two things. One, Jozy might be a good buy if you can coax him back to his 2019 level of performance. I think that’s possible, but the fact that he’s already suffered one of his frequent hamstring pulls this year does not instill great confidence. Two, Jozy and Rubio both had a good year in 2019 - both had 11 goals and better-than-average G+, xG, and xA numbers. *Together* the two might make a really good pair - especially when you consider that Rubio’s tendency to drop into spaces like a false nine, make a slick turn, or put guys on the dribble are all Sebastian Giovinco-type moves. It would likely necessitate a formation change ; the Rapids have generally played a 4-3-3 ; but Colorado in a 4-4-2 or 4-4-2 diamond might get some of the missing goals this team needs to be more than just a fringe-playoff team.
Listen, I’m not ready to mash the Rabbi’s patented ‘Damn the torpedoes’ button.
But if the Rapids want to be serious contenders for MLS Cup this year, they need to take serious stock of what they have at striker, what might be available as an upgrade, and when to finally pull the trigger on a deal that would make them more dangerous in the attack. If they signed Jozy tomorrow, I wouldn’t love it4, but I wouldn’t hate it either.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/covid-cases.html?
For the new and uninitiated, my twitter handle is not simply a cute expression of my guruship around football. I am an ordained and working rabbi.
Goals Added is a metric created by the geniuses at American Soccer Analysis that takes a massive quantity of MLS data - every dribble, pass, reception, tackle, shot, and more, at every spot on the field - and gives it a value based on how much that isolated play typically contributes in value towards a goal. It is also ‘normalized’ to a value of 0.0 - players above that number are above-average, players with negative numbers are below average. It ain’t perfect - some players like Alejandro Posuelo have criminally been underrated by the metric. But overall, it passes the eye test and more - it can generally help identify good players, and what makes them good, and not-good players.
Expected Goals is an older, more familiar metric that measures quite simply the rate at which goals taken in certain spots go in. A player who over-performs their xG (i.e., their G-xG = a positive number) is ‘a good shooter’.
I think there are better, and likely available, strikers in MLS and abroad, and there are also cheaper strikers both in MLS and abroad. But one thing you pay for when you overpay a striker is certainty - you can put that guy down for 7 or 8 goals at a minimum. I think Jozy gives you that. Even though some player from Argentina or Belgium might give you 15 goals, he also might give you only 4, and that’d be disastrous.