Which direction are the 2026 Rapids headed in?
MLS enters the Clausura, with the Colorado Rapids in the familiar position of being 'on the bubble' for the playoffs. First, how did this happen? Second, what will they between now and October?
Listeners and readers of Holding the High Line probably don’t need to be reminded that Major League Soccer has resumed after the World Cup break – but we will forgive you if the World Cup has blotted out your memories of the existence of club soccer and the local team in Commerce City. They do, in fact, still exist.
However,
while you were watching Cape Verde capture the hearts of the world, and the USMNT lay an egg against Belgium, and Mexico - whose average height was about 5’4” - bend in about a thousand crosses trying to get level with England, and England reminding us all that it’s probably never coming home, and Messi inexplicably continue to do Messi things at the exceeding ripe old age of 39,
the Colorado Rapids made some changes.
They parted ways with D-mid Conor Ronan1, CB Ian Murphy2, and Winger Alexis Manyoma.3
Starting GK Zack Steffen had shoulder surgery and is probably done for 2026.
Lucas Herrington started two games at the World Cup, including a knockout round match where the Socceroos held Egypt to a 1-1 draw after 120 minutes and went out on penalties. Herrington missed the fourth pen, but that only prompted global adulation for the poise and bravery of a teenager stepping into a big moment in front of perhaps a billion TV viewers. Thierry Henry and Zlatan Ibrahimovic had a discussion about him. I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence. Add to that this intriguing data point: there are swirling rumors that Colorado Rapids and Barcelona are in discussions about a transfer of Herrington, and it all adds up to the assumption that Herrington is off to greener pastures. Or at least, bigger clubs.
All that together mean/would mean that the Colorado Rapids have:
Three open Senior Roster slots.
Only two goalkeepers on the full time roster.
An open International Slot.
About $4 million in GAM and $850,000 in TAM.
An open DP slot.4
They also have some depth chart issues to address. And the lack of depth creates some issues around tactical and formation-flexibility.
Centerback is thin. Defensive midfield is solid, and so are the wings. Ted Ku-Dipietro has spent a lot of time hurt, though, so … who backs up Paxton Aaronsen? Are we content with a 4-2-3-1 in which Darren Yapi plays LW because there’s no other good way to get him on the field?5 Are we really content with a roster in which George Minoungou, Dante Sealy, and Darren Yapi all have to take turns sitting on the bench because there just isn’t another place for them? And for God’s sakes what happens when Lucas Herrington is sold?!?
On another level, the Rapids are at that critical stage where they either need to go for it in 2026 or punt for 2027. I’ll let HTHL superfan Scott Hammond explain it succinctly:
Scott’s right. But also, oh Scott, you poor sweet summer child…
Colorado is OFTEN on the bubble at this time of the year.
They were on the bubble in 2019, and missed. They were on the bubble in 2020, and made it. They were on the bubble in 2022, and missed. They were on the bubble in 2024, and made it.
I think they will make some moves, but not ‘huge’ moves. Just ‘interesting’ moves that might get them from 9th to 7th.
Now, the more interesting thing is how the schedule has the potential to give Colorado a turbo boost. That is, if they take advantage of it. Here are the Rapids next four games:
There are 15 teams in the Western Conference. The Pids next four games play the 12th place team (San Diego), the 10th place team (St. Louis), the 14th place team (Austin), and the 15th place team (Sporting Kansas City). That said, all of those teams look at the Rapids currently as ‘the 13th place team.’ This is all undercard fights, and none of these teams feels like a contender.
But, if all we care about is making the playoffs, basically we’ll know whether the Rapids are worthy before the back to school sales are over. If Colorado collect 9 points of the available 12, they’ll be at 25 points with 13 games to go, knowing that 46 points, or an average of 1.5 points, or fairly modest performance, will get them in.
If, however, the Rapids only pick up 4 points in the next 4 games, they leave themselves in a spot where they’ll have must-win late-season games against Seattle, San Jose, and Vancouver. Really not ideal.
I dig this team. I think Matt Wells has some great ideas and has the team playing up-tempo. But there’s still too many errors. There’s not enough talent. Paxton Aaronsen is still not-quite-there-yet. The wide players don’t get enough production. And we’re still waiting to see if Nico Hansen is a good goalkeeper, or just a guy.
I really hope we aren’t rebuilding for 2027.
Transferred to Aberdeen FC in the Scottish Premier League on a Free.
Transferred to San Diego FC for $100,000 in conditional GAM and an 2027 MLS Superdraft Second Round pick.
Colorado let his loan expire rather than pay (or renegotiate) the permanent transfer option on his contract.
Because the the Rapids have only 2 DPs, they get $2 million in bonus GAM.
This team has some great speed on the wings, and might really be fun in a 3-4-3 or a 3-5-2. You can’t do a three-man backline if you only have four CBs on the roster.