Backpass: Run of Form
Even with the latest loss to LAFC, Colorado is in great form at this middle-ish point of the season.
Well, damn, that was a mighty fine little run we just had. Maybe it’s not done yet?
In the past four games, Colorado scored 9 goals and conceded just 4 en route to three wins and one loss. June 15th the ‘Pids handled Austin, 2-0. On the 19th they put the smackdown to St Louis City 3-0. On June 22nd they mollywopped CF Montreal 4-1. And only on July 29th did they sputter out against LAFC on the road, losing 3-0.
Over that stretch, Djordje Mihailovic had four goals. Rafael Navarro had two goals, and a $3.5 million transfer from Palmieras that will keep him in burgundy through 2027. Lalas Abubakar started all four matches while Moïses Bombito was away on international duty; Sebastian Anderson took a shift at fullback; and some-time starters Omir Fernandez and Calvin Harris both contributed, too. Colorado’s win at St Louis was followed by another draw and then a loss, which culminated today in head coach Bradley Carnall’s dismissal.
I add that note for three reasons. One: Hey! We’re the team causing other coaches to get fired! Feels like the shoe is on the other foot for once.1 Two: the Rapids are safe and sound in the playoff hunt, allowing for some easy breathing for the whole squad. As Matt Pollard noted on our last podcast together, with 31 points in hand in a league where 40-45 points is enough to make the post-season, the Rapids could average 1.0 points per game for the rest of the season and still make the playoffs. I would not recommend they do that, but that degree of comfort does allow a team the latitude to rest players, try new things, and give up the occasional clunker of a game without it sowing panic. Three: have proven themselves, against the prognostications of the soccer punditocracy, to be a squarely mid-table in MLS. Chisel it in stone: the 2024 Rapids are not bad at soccer.2
This week they take on a struggling SKC team sitting on an abysmal 4-5-12 (WTL) record, followed by another go at St Louis, who are currently 3-10-7, on July 7. That’s six relatively easy points for the taking.
Many Rapids players; Bombito, Abubakar, Keegan Rosenberry (just named to the MLS All-Star Team!) Mihailovic, Bassett, and Navarro are in top form. Bombito is in the 74th percentile in MLS for FBRef.com in Tackles, is a starter for the Canadian national team, and earlier this season was noted as the fastest player in the league. Bassett is in FBRef.com’s 99th percentile at his position for non-penalty goals; 96th pct for Expected Goals; and 86th pct in Progressive Passes. He’s also been among the league leaders in total distance covered per game. Dude is everywhere and doing everything. Navarro has 11 goals so far this year; he joins a short list of just 17 Colorado Rapids players that have put in double digit goals in a season.3
Others; Zach Steffen, Kevin Cabrál, Sam Vines; are yet to shine and have something to prove this season. Here’s Vines fbref radar.
His passing is pretty good, but it hasn’t resulted in assists or Expected Assists or SCAs (Shot Creating Actions). And the trade-off is in his core defensive stats: his CBIT (Clearances, Blocks. Interceptions, and Tackles), all of which are in the 57th percentile or below. Radical idea: play Sam as a left midfielder.
These Rapids are fun to watch and competing admirably with their MLS foes, but I still believe they don’t have that game-breaking player, and they have those aforementioned players not pulling their weight. Maybe they make a few trade window moves to become a dangerous playoff team. But right now, they look like a club that will happily take a 4th-through-8th place finish this year and an early playoff exit, with an eye towards perhaps winning a trophy in 2025.
We’ll see. Right now, it’s good that the team has its motor humming as we enter the month of July. We all remember years where the team was adrift at the bottom by this point in the season, with no prospects for success.
MLS Culture is Best Culture
If you go to an away game as a supporter in England or the Balkans or South America and head to the tailgate in the wrong kit, odds are you’ll be lucky to get out alive. In MLS if you go to an opposing team tailgate, you’ll be handed a frosty beverage and a box of pupusas.
Folks talk about how ‘serious’ and ‘elite’ European and South American soccer culture is. I don’t see it. The EPL’s top tier clubs now have ticket prices so high that the stadiums are regularly mocked for being like libraries as the old school middle class supporters have become priced out. And the craziness of a Balkan rivalry game between Red Star and Partizan likely involves broken bottles, pitch invasion, seats being set alight, and hospital visits. No thank you.
MLS has the balance right. The energy is high. But nobody is going to get stabbed because they’re wearing the wrong colors. I love it. It brings me joy. It’s just the right amount of fun and committed. The LA Galaxy away experience, like my recent experiences in Columbus and Cincinnati and at LAFC, was excellent. Great food, new friends, good times.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: go take an MLS road trip. It will be well worth it.
I mean, is that just me? It feels like the Robin Fraser and Anthony Hudson administrations were haunted for longish stretches by questions of ‘when is that guy gonna get fired?’ For Hudson, it was basically for 3/4 of his tenure, while for Robin it was just that final awful year. But it feeeels like longer.
At this point in writing, I started updating my Rapids roster spreadsheet, and then the dog barked and I ran to throw the ball with him and I stepped on a bee and got stung. It hurt like a motherfucker.
Diego Rubio (2019 and 2022), Kei Kamara (2019), Deshorn Brown (2013 and 2014), Omar Cummings (2010), Conor Casey (2008, 2009, 2010), Jeff Cunningham (2005), Mark Chung (2002 and 2003), John Spencer (2001 and 2003), Chris Henderson (2002), Chris Carrieri (2002), Junior Agogo (2000), Jorge Dely Valdes (1999), Wolde Harris (1998), Paul Bravo (1998), Ross Paule (1998), and Jean Harbor (1996)
So true about the away culture